12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Tenerife vs Girona Segunda División prediction & result

Santa Cruz de Tenerife
Referee: Daniel Palencia Caballero
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Tenerife 1-1 Girona.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Tenerife, 28% draw, 44% Girona — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Girona at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tenerife3%Draw93%Girona4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Yaser Asprilla
David Rodríguez Ramos
21'
23'
Izan González
Fabricio Assis de Souza Barbosa
24'
⚽Enric Gallegoassist: Nacho Gil
26'
45'
🔁Paulo Gazzanigaout: Vladyslav Krapyvtsov
🔁Fabricio Assis de Souza Barbosaout: Jesus Alvarez
52'
53'
Vladyslav Vanat
55'
Holmes Júnior Zamorano Muñoz
59'
🔁Abel Ruízout: Bryan Gil
59'
🔁Yaser Asprillaout: Donny van de Beek
🔁Dani Fernándezout: Gerard Valentín
67'
71'
🔁Carles Pérezout: Unai Hernández
🔁Nacho Gilout: Noel López
76'
🔁Mauro Pittonout: A. Krdžalić
76'
🔁Christian Pierre Louis Gomisout: Grant Leon Ranos
76'
78'
🔁Izan Gonzálezout: Oleksandr Pyshchur
Enric Gallego
88'
89'
Donny van de Beek

Match stats — Tenerife vs Girona

41%Possession59%
12Shots12
3On target4
6Corners3
0.76xG1.13

Goals against chances

Tenerife1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
Girona1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tenerife 4-4-2
  • 1Dani MartínG
  • 19César ÁlvarezD
  • 12A. LandázuriD
  • 4José LeónD
  • 2David RodríguezD
  • 29Daniel FernándezM
  • 15FabricioM
  • 20M. PittónM
  • 10Nacho GilM
  • 18Enric GallegoF
  • 17C. GomisF
Substitutes
  • 23A. KrdžalićM
  • 3R. JureškinD
  • 40Gabriel LozanoG
  • 11Noel LópezF
  • 21Marc MateuD
  • 5Jorge MorenoD
  • 7M. PečarM
  • 22G. RanosF
  • 14Gerard ValentínF
Coach: Álvaro
Girona 4-4-2
  • 13P. GazzanigaG
  • 4Javier BoñarD
  • 38Holmes ZamoranoD
  • 16Alejandro FrancésD
  • 11Álex MorenoD
  • 22Y. AsprillaM
  • 8Fran BeltránM
  • 24I. GonzalezM
  • 23Carles PérezM
  • 9Abel RuizF
  • 19V. VanatF
Substitutes
  • 30Unai HernándezM
  • 29L. KouroumaM
  • 25V. KrapyvtsovG
  • 5David LópezD
  • 14Iván MoranteM
  • 3Mateu MoreyD
  • 2A. MuminD
  • 10PortuF
  • 1Sergi PuigG
Coach: Quique Álvarez

Form going into Tenerife vs Girona

Tenerife

Segunda División

  • L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026

Girona

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Mallorca4 October 2026
  • W2-0Albacete25 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Cadiz19 September 2026
  • L1-2Castellón12 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Sporting Gijon5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Girona scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Tenerife123631517-215
3Girona147342413+1124

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tenerife vs Girona

  • 19 June 2022Tenerife 1–3 GironaSegunda División
  • 11 June 2022Girona 0–0 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 9 May 2022Girona 0–1 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 8 November 2021Tenerife 2–1 GironaSegunda División
  • 1 May 2021Girona 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División

Leading scorers: Tenerife and Girona

Tenerife

GoalsAssists

  • Enric Gallego81

Girona

GoalsAssists

  • V. Vanat52
  • Y. Asprilla51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Tenerife and Girona drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Girona at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Yaser Asprilla 4' for Girona, Enric Gallego 26' for Tenerife. On expected goals it finished 0.76–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tenerife a 10.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.0% after a win, 9.7% after a draw, 11.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.7%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.

For Girona the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 47.8% going in: 51.7% after a win, 44.9% after a draw, 43.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.9%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Tenerife v Girona has moved

First published on 28 Sep at 31% / 30% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 28% / 28% / 44%: the biggest move is Girona's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Tenerife win28%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Girona win44%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.