12 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Oviedo vs Eibar Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo
Referee: Morales Moreno Pablo
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Oviedo 3-1 Eibar.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Oviedo, 30% draw, 33% Eibar — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oviedo at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oviedo99%Draw1%Eibar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Mikel Goti Lopezassist: Enzo Pérez Miranda
3'
12'
Unai Elgezabal Udondo
David Jimenez
21'
42'
Anaitz Arbilla
⚽Carlos Dominguez
45'
45'
🔁Unai Elgezabal Udondoout: Peru Nolaskoain
Carlos Dominguez
53'
59'
🔁Jon Magunazelaiaout: Iván Gil
59'
🔁jon guruzetaout: Pejiño
🔁Víctor García Mingoout: José Luis Morales
65'
🔁David Jimenezout: Nacho Vidal
65'
🔁Youness Lachhab Didiout: Daniel Villahermosa
65'
🔁Enzo Pérez Mirandaout: Pablo Saenz
72'
72'
🔁Malcom Aresout: Javier Martón Ansó
74'
⚽Iván Gilassist: Javier Martón Ansó
Dani Calvo
79'
81'
🔁Ander Madariaga Susaetaout: Lucas Nuñez Ramirez
🔁Mikel Goti Lopezout: David Costas
83'
⚽Carlos Dominguezassist: Aritz Aldasoro
85'
Daniel Villahermosa
90+3'
90+4'
Juan Bernat

Match stats — Oviedo vs Eibar

42%Possession58%
16Shots18
7On target6
10Corners5
1.6xG1.55

Goals against chances

Oviedo3 from 1.60 xGmore than the chances were worth
Eibar1 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Oviedo 4-3-2-1
  • 13Aarón EscandellG
  • 21David JiménezD
  • 12Dani CalvoD
  • 23Carlos DomínguezD
  • 15S. RodriguezD
  • 16Aritz AldasoroM
  • 5Y. DidiM
  • 32Enzo PerezM
  • 8Mikel GotiM
  • 10Alberto ReinaM
  • 18V. MingoF
Substitutes
  • 2AisarM
  • 4David CostasD
  • 30Marco EstebanD
  • 27Samuel FranganilloG
  • 11Jacobo GonzálezF
  • 28D. MenendezM
  • 25José Luis MoralesF
  • 20Pablo SáenzF
  • 22Nacho VidalD
Coach: Julián Calero
Eibar 4-2-3-1
  • 13Jon MikelG
  • 22Álvaro RodríguezD
  • 4Unai ElgezabalD
  • 23Anaitz ArbillaD
  • 24Juan BernatD
  • 8Ander MadariagaM
  • 30Aleix GarridoM
  • 7Malcom AduM
  • 11Jon MagunazelaiaM
  • 10Jon GuruzetaM
  • 9Jon BautistaF
Substitutes
  • 18M. AranaD
  • 17PejiñoF
  • 2Sergio CuberoD
  • 3Imanol García de AlbénizD
  • 21Iván GilM
  • 1Luis LópezG
  • 20Javi MartónF
  • 5Peru NolaskoainM
  • 28Lucas NuñezM
Coach: Jokin Arambarri

Form going into Oviedo vs Eibar

Oviedo

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to Eldense2 October 2026
  • W2-0Sporting Gijon27 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Sabadell20 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Valladolid13 September 2026
  • D0-0Burgos6 September 2026

Eibar

Segunda División

  • W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026

What these results say

  • Oviedo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Oviedo146352018+221
6Eibar127232114+723

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Eibar

  • 5 April 2025Eibar 1–1 OviedoSegunda División
  • 29 September 2024Oviedo 1–0 EibarSegunda División
  • 12 June 2024Eibar 0–2 OviedoSegunda División
  • 8 June 2024Oviedo 0–0 EibarSegunda División
  • 2 June 2024Eibar 4–3 OviedoSegunda División

Leading scorers: Oviedo and Eibar

Oviedo

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Domínguez50

Eibar

GoalsAssists

  • Iván Gil41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Oviedo beat Eibar 3–1. The model had made a win for Oviedo its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mikel Goti Lopez 3' for Oviedo, Carlos Dominguez 45' for Oviedo, Iván Gil 74' for Eibar, Carlos Dominguez 85' for Oviedo. On expected goals it finished 1.60–1.55.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Oviedo a 19.5% chance to finish in the top four: 23.7% after a win, 18.1% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.7%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For Eibar the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 73.5% going in: 79.2% after a win, 73.4% after a draw, 69.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.7%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.