19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Burnley vs Derby Championship prediction & result

Turf Moor, Burnley
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Burnley 1-1 Derby.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Burnley, 27% draw, 22% Derby — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Burnley at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burnley97%Draw3%Derby0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Igor Júlio
31'
⚽Zeki Amdouniassist: Lucas Pires Silva
34'
Anel Ahmedhodzic
56'
🔁Marcus Edwardsout: Largie Ramazani
61'
🔁Reo Hatateout: Ugo Raghouber
61'
66'
🔁Alex Mowattout: Oscar Fraulo
66'
🔁Ryan Hedgesout: Mohammed Fuseini
67'
D. Ozoh
Josh Laurent
68'
🔁Zeki Amdouniout: Jamie Vardy
73'
🔁Jacob Bruun Larsenout: Andréas Hountondji
73'
78'
🔁D. Ozohout: Rhian Brewster
82'
🔁Charlie Taylorout: Corey Blackett-Taylor
Ugo Raghouber
86'
87'
Corey Blackett-Taylor
🔁Lucas Pires Silvaout: Oliver Sonne
89'
90+3'
⚽Mohammed Fuseiniassist: Rhian Brewster

Match stats — Burnley vs Derby

47%Possession53%
6Shots17
2On target6
4Corners6

Line-ups

Burnley 4-4-2
  • 37G. CoudertG
  • 14C. RobertsD
  • 15A. AhmedhodžićD
  • 44IgorD
  • 23Lucas PiresD
  • 10M. EdwardsM
  • 29J. LaurentM
  • 3Max AlleyneM
  • 5R. HatateM
  • 7J. Bruun LarsenF
  • 11Z. AmdouniF
Substitutes
  • 9J. VardyF
  • 2K. WalkerD
  • 27A. BrojaF
  • 18H. EkdalD
  • 17A. HountondjiF
  • 8U. RaghouberM
  • 19L. RamazaniF
  • 22O. SonneD
  • 1M. WeißG
Coach: N. Hayen
Derby 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. VickersG
  • 23J. WardD
  • 6S. LangåsD
  • 28D. SandersonD
  • 18C. TaylorD
  • 20A. MowattM
  • 4D. OzohM
  • 26R. HedgesM
  • 11S. SzmodicsM
  • 8B. ClarkM
  • 9C. MorrisF
Substitutes
  • 10R. BrewsterF
  • 29O. FrauloM
  • 16M. FuseiniF
  • 22M. JohnstonD
  • 12R. O'DonnellG
  • 15L. SalvesenF
  • 27L. TravisM
  • 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  • 42Raymond OfforD
Coach: J. Eustace

Form going into Burnley vs Derby

Burnley

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
  • L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
  • D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026

Derby

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
  • L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
  • L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
  • L0-3Swansea29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Derby conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Burnley151772231-910
23Derby152491430-1610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burnley vs Derby

  • 26 August 2025Burnley 2–1 DerbyLeague Cup
  • 8 April 2025Derby 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
  • 10 December 2024Burnley 0–0 DerbyChampionship
  • 25 January 2016Burnley 4–1 DerbyChampionship
  • 21 September 2015Derby 0–0 BurnleyChampionship

The full Burnley vs Derby record →

The result against the call

Burnley and Derby drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Burnley at 51% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Zeki Amdouni 34' for Burnley, Mohammed Fuseini 90+3' for Derby.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.