19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Lincoln vs Swansea Championship prediction & result

LNER stadium, Lincoln
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Lincoln 1-2 Swansea.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Lincoln, 29% draw, 29% Swansea — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lincoln at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lincoln0%Draw5%Swansea95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ben House
6'
Ryley Towler
25'
⚽Reeco Hackett-Fairchild (pen)
39'
47'
⚽Moussa Kounfolo Yeoassist: melker widell
51'
⚽Stephen Eustáquioassist: Filip Lissah
60'
🔁Adam Idahout: Zan Vipotnik
60'
🔁Moussa Kounfolo Yeoout: Ronald Pereira Martins
60'
🔁Elijah Justout: Joseph Amankwaah Opoku
🔁Adam Reachout: Chiedozie Ogbene
64'
🔁Conor McGrandlesout: Yunus Konak
64'
🔁Ben Houseout: Mikkel Ladefoged
64'
77'
🔁Stephen Eustáquioout: Goncalo Franco
🔁Ryley Towlerout: Robert Nicholas Street
77'
82'
🔁Stephen Welshout: Jenson Seelt
C. Cohen
84'
90'
Filip Lissah

Match stats — Lincoln vs Swansea

58%Possession42%
13Shots10
4On target4
2Corners1

Line-ups

Lincoln 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. WickensG
  • 25D. ElereweD
  • 15S. BradleyD
  • 6R. TowlerD
  • 4A. CoubișM
  • 8T. BaylissM
  • 14C. McGrandlesM
  • 3A. ReachM
  • 7R. HackettM
  • 18B. HouseM
  • 34F. DraperF
Substitutes
  • 29E. WheatleyF
  • 24I. VarfolomeevM
  • 17R. StreetF
  • 33D. OyegokeD
  • 27C. OgbeneF
  • 11M. LadefogedF
  • 26Y. KonakM
  • 16D. JefferiesM
  • 46J. GauciG
Coach: Chris Cohen
Swansea 4-3-3
  • 22L. VigourouxG
  • 26F. LissahD
  • 5B. CabangoD
  • 23S. WelshD
  • 14J. TymonD
  • 8E. JustM
  • 6M. StamenićM
  • 46S. EustáquioM
  • 49M. YeoF
  • 33A. IdahF
  • 7M. WidellF
Substitutes
  • 9Z. VipotnikF
  • 3J. SeeltD
  • 35RonaldF
  • 20Tiago ParenteD
  • 30Joseph OkopuF
  • 16Tom IorpendaM
  • 4J. FultonM
  • 17Gonçalo FrancoM
  • 1A. FisherG
Coach: Vítor Matos

Form going into Lincoln vs Swansea

Lincoln

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
  • D1-1Southampton5 September 2026
  • D0-0Blackburn1 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Bolton29 August 2026

Swansea

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
  • D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026
  • W2-0Watford1 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Derby29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lincoln went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Lincoln had two goals or fewer.
  • Lincoln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Swansea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Lincoln154381526-1115
6Swansea158252218+426

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Swansea won 2–1 at Lincoln. The model had leaned towards a win for Lincoln at 42% and given a win for Swansea 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Reeco Hackett-Fairchild (penalty) 39' for Lincoln, Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 47' for Swansea, Stephen Eustáquio 51' for Swansea.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.