13 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor 1. Lig prediction & result

17 Eylül Stadium, Balikesir
Referee: Baydar, Emrullah
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Bandırmaspor 1-1 Sivasspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bandırmaspor, 30% draw, 21% Sivasspor — fair odds of 2.04, 3.33 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bandırmaspor at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bandırmaspor4%Draw94%Sivasspor2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Ebrima Ceesay
62'
🔁Ebrima Ceesayout: Burak Kapacak
62'
🔁Salih Kavrazlıout: Cihat Celik
🔁Hakan Bilgiçout: Ali Ulgen
64'
🔁Enes Cinemreout: Muhammed Gümüşkaya
64'
66'
⚽Cihat Celikassist: Valon Ethemi
🔁Emirhan Ayhanout: Muhammet Harun Genc
70'
🔁Kerem Dönertaşout: Gianni Bruno
70'
Remi Mulumba
71'
76'
Valon Ethemi
🔁Tosin Kehindeout: Dame Bamba Seck
83'
⚽Enes Aydın
83'
87'
🔁Valon Ethemiout: Clinton Duodu
90+3'
🔁Oguzhan Aksoyout: Yılmaz Cin

Match stats — Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor

70%Possession30%
20Shots4
4On target3
8Corners2
1.92xG0.29

Goals against chances

Bandırmaspor1 from 1.92 xGless than the chances were worth
Sivasspor1 from 0.29 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bandırmaspor 4-1-4-1
  • 16A. AlkanG
  • 77H. BilgiçD
  • 14Y. KocatürkD
  • 34Enes AydınD
  • 6Lucas LimaD
  • 92R. MulumbaM
  • 17Emirhan AyhanM
  • 23K. DonertasM
  • 20E. ÇinemreM
  • 11T. KehindeM
  • 90Recep Yalın DilekF
Substitutes
  • 19Yasin MidilicD
  • 21E. ÖzbekM
  • 22A. ÜlgenD
  • 27Dame SeckF
  • 86B. BekaroğluD
  • 99F. BekleviçG
  • 3A. BilerD
  • 9G. BrunoF
  • 7M. GençM
Coach: Ertuğrul Arslan
Sivasspor 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. BakırbaşG
  • 26M. YıldırımD
  • 4M. ÇelikD
  • 34T. TuzlacikD
  • 77Y. KefkirD
  • 66Oguzhan AksoyM
  • 20M. MohammedM
  • 28S. KavrazlıM
  • 30E. CeesayM
  • 27V. EthemiM
  • 9R. ManajF
Substitutes
  • 90M. AlbayrakD
  • 53Y. BaynazogluG
  • 91Osman BaşkuyuD
  • 99Yilmaz CinF
  • 17C. DuoduF
  • 19E. GökayF
  • 11B. KapacakM
  • 74Kadir Taylan KoparanG
  • 43Eymen YurdcuM
Coach: Ismet Taşdemir

Form going into Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor

Bandırmaspor

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Vanspor FK9 October 2026

Sivasspor

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1Pendikspor9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Bandırmaspor143561717014
18Sivasspor142751723-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor

  • 2 May 2026Bandırmaspor 1–0 Sivasspor1. Lig
  • 27 December 2025Sivasspor 2–0 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
  • 9 February 2022Bandırmaspor 2–4 SivassporTürkiye Kupası
  • 7 May 2017Sivasspor 3–0 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
  • 17 December 2016Bandırmaspor 0–1 Sivasspor1. Lig

Leading scorers: Bandırmaspor and Sivasspor

Bandırmaspor

GoalsAssists

  • G. Bruno50

Sivasspor

GoalsAssists

  • R. Manaj102

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bandırmaspor and Sivasspor drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bandırmaspor at 49% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Cihat Celik 66' for Sivasspor, Enes Aydın 83' for Bandırmaspor. On expected goals it finished 1.92–0.29.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bandırmaspor a 29.3% chance to finish in the top four: 33.0% after a win, 26.0% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.0%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.

For Sivasspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.3% going in: 7.6% after a win, 5.1% after a draw, 4.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 5.1%.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bandırmaspor v Sivasspor has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 45% / 32% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 30% / 21%: the biggest move is Bandırmaspor's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Bandırmaspor win49%▲ +4
  2. Draw30%▼ −2
  3. Sivasspor win21%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.