Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Muğlaspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Fatih Karagümrük, 28% draw, 22% Muğlaspor — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fatih Karagümrük at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. SilvestriG
- 25M. SarıkayaD
- 4D. BiraschiD
- 28A. ÇınarD
- 33Ç. KurukalıpD
- 19Y. OnogoM
- 20M. SiopisM
- 26Traore AhmedM
- 5E. AkbabaM
- 22R. CivelekM
- 9C. TosunF
- 21Candan BaskaleM
- 14Marius Tresor DohM
- 41J. EsenM
- 27Muhammed KadiogluD
- 7Baris KalayciF
- 17Tarık Buğra KalpaklıF
- 3A. NukanD
- 6R. YalçınM
- 11T. ÇukurF
- 17E. KılıçarslanG
- 15O. NahırcıD
- 88Yiğit FidanD
- 44L. Del PinoD
- 28A. EnginM
- 21J. ÇelhakaM
- 23A. GünerenM
- 5O. MaturM
- 11M. DiarraF
- 99Y. UzunogluF
- 9P. YıldırımF
- 27I. SissokoF
- 13K. OsundinaF
- 53Alihan KazmazD
- 91İ. FuratF
- 31Arel EkinciG
- 22B. CeylanD
- 7D. CamajF
- 20B. BulutM
- 3A. BarakD
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 19 |
| 11 | Muğlaspor | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
GoalsAssists
- A. Pešić52
Muğlaspor
GoalsAssists
- M. Diarra41
- Y. Uzunoglu41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fatih Karagümrük at 50% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Emre Akbaba 31' for Fatih Karagümrük, Mamady·Diarra 44' for Muğlaspor. Sent off: Çağtay Kurukalıp (Fatih Karagümrük) 53'. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.93.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fatih Karagümrük a 37.5% chance to finish in the top four: 40.7% after a win, 35.6% after a draw, 30.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.6%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.
For Muğlaspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.5% going in: 2.4% after a win, 4.9% after a draw, 6.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.9%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fatih Karagümrük v Muğlaspor has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 46% / 30% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is Fatih Karagümrük's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Fatih Karagümrük win50%▲ +4
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Muğlaspor win22%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.