13 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK 1. Lig prediction & result

Pendik Stadyumu, Istanbul
Referee: Copur Muhammet Alperen
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Pendikspor 1-2 Vanspor FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Pendikspor, 26% draw, 23% Vanspor FK — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pendikspor at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pendikspor0%Draw4%Vanspor FK96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Berkay Sulungozout: Thuram
21'
M. Özdemir
28'
45'
Sinan Osmanoğlu
⚽Emrah Başsanassist: Hakan Yesil
49'
•Jonson Clarke-Harris
58'
58'
🔁Özkan Yiğiterout: Ozan Kokcu
59'
🔁Alvaro de Oliveiraout: İlkan Sever
60'
⚽Jurgen Bardhi
🔁Efehan Pekdemirout: Y. Sönmez
68'
🔁Jonson Clarke-Harrisout: damir hrelja
68'
Hakan Yesil
75'
79'
🔁Mehmet Manisout: Muhammed Furkan Özhan
82'
🔁Jurgen Bardhiout: Jesse Khan
🔁Emrah Başsanout: Mirko susak
83'
M. Özdemir
87'
88'
⚽Muhammed Furkan Özhan (pen)

Match stats — Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK

62%Possession38%
13Shots13
2On target7
2Corners7
0.82xG2.35

Goals against chances

Pendikspor1 from 0.82 xGabout what the chances were worth
Vanspor FK2 from 2.35 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pendikspor 4-1-4-1
  • 97U. YuvakuranG
  • 23E. GökçeD
  • 5B. SülüngözD
  • 2T. İnceD
  • 66F. DoğanD
  • 41M. ÖzdemirM
  • 60B. KaradenizM
  • 14H. YeşilM
  • 28E. PekdemirM
  • 7E. BaşsanM
  • 9J. Clarke-HarrisF
Substitutes
  • 34ThuramF
  • 19B. DemiroğluF
  • 93Burak GültekinM
  • 88D. HreljaF
  • 99M. KipritF
  • 30E. KoyuncuG
  • 50Mirko ŠušakF
  • 20Y. SönmezM
  • 61O. ÇakıroğluF
Coach: Umut Eskiköy
Vanspor FK 4-3-3
  • 1A. UysalG
  • 77C. HanalpD
  • 5S. OsmanoğluD
  • 13N. OularéD
  • 61F. GençD
  • 11M. ManişM
  • 41M. ÖzcanM
  • 58Ö. YiğiterM
  • 27J. BardhiF
  • 9Álvaro de OliveiraF
  • 15T. YenneF
Substitutes
  • 7I. AlhaftF
  • 30R. ŽivkovićF
  • 35B. İşçilerD
  • 25F. ÖzhanF
  • 17İlkan SeverF
  • 2K. SevenD
  • 10O. KökçüF
  • 8M. KhanM
  • 22A. DamluG
Coach: M. Gürsel

Form going into Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK

Pendikspor

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to Sivasspor9 October 2026

Vanspor FK

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Bandırmaspor9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Pendikspor143561525-1014
14Vanspor FK145361723-616

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK

  • 6 March 2026Pendikspor 1–1 Vanspor FK1. Lig
  • 18 October 2025Vanspor FK 1–1 Pendikspor1. Lig
  • 18 March 2021Vanspor FK 2–0 Pendikspor2. Lig
  • 14 November 2020Pendikspor 3–5 Vanspor FK2. Lig

The result against the call

Vanspor FK won 2–1 at Pendikspor. The model had leaned towards a win for Pendikspor at 51% and given a win for Vanspor FK 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Emrah Başsan 49' for Pendikspor, Jurgen Bardhi 60' for Vanspor FK, Muhammed Furkan Özhan (penalty) 88' for Vanspor FK. Sent off: M. Özdemir (Pendikspor) 87'. On expected goals it finished 0.82–2.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pendikspor a 15.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.9% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 20.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.7%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

For Vanspor FK the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 67.4% going in: 59.8% after a win, 66.5% after a draw, 71.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.8%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Pendikspor v Vanspor FK has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is Pendikspor's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Pendikspor win51%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Vanspor FK win23%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.