13 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK 1. Lig prediction & result

Yusuf Ziya Onis, Istanbul
Referee: Yucel Buyuk
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Sarıyer 1-4 Bodrum FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sarıyer, 32% draw, 30% Bodrum FK — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sarıyer at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarıyer0%Draw1%Bodrum FK99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Yusuf Sertkayaassist: Tomas Cruz
9'
F. Apaydın
15'
⚽Vincent Aboubakarassist: Fernando
23'
⚽Vincent Aboubakarassist: Boran Baskan
27'
🔁Fernandoout: Berkay Aslan
38'
•Vincent Aboubakar
🔁Marcos Silvaout: André Poko
45'
🔁Eren Karadağout: Furkan Gedik
45'
🔁Tunahan Ergulout: Joseph Attamah
45'
56'
Boran Baskan
🔁Mamadou Thiamout: Dogan Can Davas
64'
69'
🔁Boran Baskanout: Mustafa Erdilman
75'
⚽Berkay Aslanassist: Mustafa Erdilman
80'
Ege Bilsel
⚽Dogan Can Davasassist: Cebrail Karayel
81'
90'
🔁Yusuf Sertkayaout: Florian Loshaj
90'
🔁F. Apaydınout: Emre Kaplan
90'
🔁Ege Bilselout: Elvir Gashijani
⚽Emeka Eze (pen)
90+1'

Match stats — Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK

62%Possession38%
19Shots15
2On target8
7Corners3
1.93xG1.28

Goals against chances

Sarıyer1 from 1.93 xGless than the chances were worth
Bodrum FK4 from 1.28 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarıyer 4-2-3-1
  • 13I. ŠehićG
  • 77C. KarayelD
  • 88C. OsmanpaşaD
  • 4E. DikmenD
  • 5E. KorkmazoğluD
  • 8Marcos SilvaM
  • 14T. ErgülM
  • 93M. ThiamM
  • 10E. KaracaM
  • 11E. KaradağM
  • 90E. EzeF
Substitutes
  • 1F. AkyüzG
  • 7B. AliciM
  • 24K. ArslanD
  • 3J. AttamahD
  • 53A. Biyogo PokoM
  • 17D. DavasM
  • 23Ü. ErgünD
  • 41F. GedikF
  • 9B. KörF
Coach: B. Bölükbaşı
Bodrum FK 4-2-3-1
  • 1Diogo SousaG
  • 77B. YavuzayD
  • 5A. AjetiD
  • 4A. YılmazD
  • 23F. ApaydınD
  • 20Yusuf SertkayaM
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 11E. BilselM
  • 82B. BaşkanM
  • 10Fernando AndradeM
  • 26V. AboubakarF
Substitutes
  • 52Devrim SahinF
  • 32B. TosunG
  • 68I. TarimD
  • 80R. ProvidenceF
  • 14F. LoshajM
  • 75E. KaplanD
  • 30Elvir GashijaniF
  • 8M. ErdilmanM
  • 19Berkay AslanF
Coach: Burhan Eşer

Form going into Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK

Sarıyer

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Ümraniyespor9 October 2026

Bodrum FK

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Keçiörengücü9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Sarıyer144551519-417
7Bodrum FK145631813+521

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK

  • 2 May 2026Bodrum FK 0–1 Sarıyer1. Lig
  • 27 December 2025Sarıyer 1–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
  • 5 March 2022Bodrum FK 3–0 Sarıyer2. Lig
  • 31 October 2021Sarıyer 1–2 Bodrum FK2. Lig
  • 17 March 2019Sarıyer 3–1 Bodrum FK2. Lig

Leading scorers: Sarıyer and Bodrum FK

Sarıyer

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Bodrum FK

GoalsAssists

  • V. Aboubakar50
  • E. Bilsel41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bodrum FK won 4–1 at Sarıyer. The model had leaned towards a win for Sarıyer at 38% and given a win for Bodrum FK 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Yusuf Sertkaya 7' for Bodrum FK, Vincent Aboubakar 15' for Bodrum FK, Vincent Aboubakar 23' for Bodrum FK, Berkay Aslan 75' for Bodrum FK, Dogan Can Davas 81' for Sarıyer. On expected goals it finished 1.93–1.28.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sarıyer a 9.8% chance to finish in the top four: 12.5% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.1%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

For Bodrum FK the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.2% going in: 7.3% after a win, 4.6% after a draw, 3.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sarıyer v Bodrum FK has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 34% / 33% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 32% / 30%: the biggest move is Sarıyer's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Sarıyer win38%▲ +4
  2. Draw32%▼ −1
  3. Bodrum FK win30%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.