Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Cambuur 3-0 NEC Nijmegen.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Cambuur, 27% draw, 35% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cambuur at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen
Line-ups
- 1T. JansenG
- 2D. BouahD
- 4I. BaoufD
- 14B. van DuijlD
- 28M. CostarelliD
- 33M. MaertensM
- 8N. SourenM
- 15F. KvamM
- 10R. El ArguiouiM
- 11I. HamacheM
- 13N. BinderF
- 17Ethan ApkakouM
- 6J. AmofaD
- 3J. BerkhoutD
- 7S. BouhoudaneF
- 29Iwan HenstraF
- 23L. JettenD
- 27W. KooistraF
- 21J. MeijsterG
- 16R. MuldersD
- 1G. CrettazG
- 21T. StormD
- 3P. SandlerD
- 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
- 19Adam TahauiM
- 6D. NejašmićM
- 18D. GeigerM
- 99Clement BischoffM
- 9T. CheryM
- 20N. LebretonM
- 14K. SierhuisF
- 77A. ThomasF
- 10D. TadićF
- 12N. PolsterG
- 17B. NuytinckD
- 42Y. MoslihD
- 7E. MorF
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 30B. LinssenF
- 34Kevin KersF
Form going into Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen
Cambuur
- D2-2away to Telstar6 September 2026
- L1-4Twente30 August 2026
- L2-5Feyenoord23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Fortuna Sittard15 August 2026
NEC Nijmegen
- D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
- L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
- W3-1away to PEC Zwolle29 August 2026
- W4-1away to Willem II15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cambuur | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen
- 12 September 2026Cambuur 3–0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 27 February 2024Cambuur 1–2 NEC NijmegenKNVB Beker
- 11 February 2023NEC Nijmegen 0–0 CambuurEredivisie
- 4 November 2022Cambuur 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 3 April 2022Cambuur 1–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 16 December 2021Cambuur 1–2 NEC NijmegenKNVB Beker
Leading scorers: Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen
Cambuur
- R. El Arguioui4 goals
- I. Hamache3 goals1 assists
NEC Nijmegen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.