Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Fortuna Sittard, 29% draw, 38% Ajax — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Ajax at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
Line-ups
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 23P. BrittijnD
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
- 8J. DahlhausD
- 52M. IhattarenM
- 20É. MichutM
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandM
- 25L. ZeefuikF
- 10O. RomenyF
- 9A. DescotteF
- 39Ganni BuyukhanM
- 38Moussa GbemouM
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 44David StockbrinkF
- 15N. de GrootD
- 35K. van BurgstedenM
- 6S. van OtteleD
- 33K. ReitmaierG
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 3A. GaaeiD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 24J. MokioM
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 23S. BerghuisF
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 26M. PaesG
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 5O. WijndalD
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 36D. JanseD
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
- L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
- W3-1Cambuur15 August 2026
- D2-2away to PSV Eindhoven8 August 2026
Ajax
All competitions we cover
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
- W5-3FC Sion27 August 2026
- W4-2away to FC Sion20 August 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen16 August 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Sittard conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Sittard had three goals or more.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ajax had three goals or more.
- Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
- 14 February 2026Ajax 4–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 6 December 2025Fortuna Sittard 1–3 AjaxEredivisie
- 9 February 2025Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 18 September 2024Ajax 5–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 10 March 2024Ajax 2–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare71
- J. Brandt62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ajax won 5–1 at Fortuna Sittard. The model had made a win for Ajax its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Julian Brandt 35' for Ajax, Anthony Descotte 52' for Fortuna Sittard, Thilo Kehrer 62' for Ajax, Davy Klaassen 73' for Ajax, Kasper Dolberg 79' for Ajax, Youri Baas 90+6' for Ajax.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.