Ceara vs Criciuma Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Ceara 1-0 Criciuma.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Ceara, 27% draw, 21% Criciuma — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Ceara at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ceara vs Criciuma
Line-ups
- 1RichardG
- 18JúlioD
- 4Luiz OtávioD
- 13Luiz OtávioD
- 12SanchezD
- 25Vinicius ZanoceloM
- 81Joao GabrielM
- 60Enzo LodovicoM
- 29VinaM
- 8Matheus AraújoM
- 94R. LópezF
- 26RichardsonM
- 23Caíque FrançaG
- 33ÉderD
- 11N. FerreiraF
- 7Giovanni PavaniM
- 77Lenny LobatoF
- 10L. MugniM
- 99LuccaF
- 22Matheus NogueiraG
- 32AirtonG
- 6MarcinhoD
- 3RodrigoD
- 4Luciano CastánD
- 22Marcelo HermesD
- 14RonaldM
- 41Jean IrmerM
- 7Fellipe MateusM
- 10Jhonata RobertF
- 33YuriF
- 91R. OteroF
- 5EduardoM
- 37César MartinsD
- 88CauêF
- 34Bruno AlvesD
- 1AlissonG
- 21João CarlosF
- 11RomarinhoF
- 50ThiaguinhoM
- 97Willean LepoD
Form going into Ceara vs Criciuma
Ceara
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Avai3 October 2026
Criciuma
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Londrina2 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Ceara | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 44 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 62 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ceara vs Criciuma
- 16 June 2026Criciuma 1–1 CearaSerie B
- 2 September 2023Ceara 1–0 CriciumaSerie B
- 21 May 2023Criciuma 1–2 CearaSerie B
- 18 November 2017Criciuma 1–1 CearaSerie B
- 2 August 2017Ceara 3–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 8 November 2016Criciuma 2–3 CearaSerie B
Leading scorers: Ceara and Criciuma
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Richard74
Criciuma
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ceara beat Criciuma 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Ceara at 52%. The goal: Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli 88' for Ceara.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Criciuma a 31.3% chance to finish in the top four: 54.6% after a win, 33.0% after a draw, 23.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.4%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Ceara v Criciuma has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 52% / 27% / 21%: the biggest move is Ceara's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Ceara win52%▲ +5
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Criciuma win21%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.