Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Nautico Recife 0-2 Novorizontino.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Nautico Recife, 26% draw, 43% Novorizontino — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Novorizontino at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
Line-ups
- 1MurielG
- 2ArnaldoD
- 15Léo ÍndioD
- 3AlbertoD
- 23Igor FernandesD
- 8WendersonM
- 41SamuelM
- 29Júnior TodinhoM
- 10Jean CarlosM
- 7ViníciusM
- 72DerekF
- 24B. BorasiM
- 11Victor AndradeF
- 34WandersonD
- 5AuremirM
- 55G. GuruceagaG
- 46Gustavo HenriqueD
- 93Reginaldo LopesD
- 22P. NúñezM
- 27Luiz FelipeM
- 93JordiG
- 2MadsonD
- 26Gabriel BahiaD
- 4PatrickD
- 5SanderD
- 41ReidineyM
- 17Matheus BianquiM
- 6Luis OyamaM
- 30Nicolas CarecaM
- 10RomuloF
- 11RobsonF
- 7Ronald BarcellosF
- 66MaykonD
- 28MarlonM
- 18Léo NaldiM
- 50JuninhoM
- 77Hélio BorgesF
- 14Eduardo BrockD
- 31CésarG
- 9CarlãoF
Form going into Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
Nautico Recife
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
Novorizontino
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 46 |
| 1 | Novorizontino | 38 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 67 | 32 | +35 | 73 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
- 14 June 2026Novorizontino 2–2 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 15 October 2022Novorizontino 6–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 2 July 2022Nautico Recife 3–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
Leading scorers: Nautico Recife and Novorizontino
Nautico Recife
GoalsAssists
- Vinícius93
Novorizontino
GoalsAssists
- Robson165
- Romulo119
- Matheus Bianqui70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Novorizontino won 2–0 at Nautico Recife. The model had made a win for Novorizontino its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nicolas Morês da Cruz 7' for Novorizontino, Romulo Azevedo Simão (penalty) 14' for Novorizontino.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Novorizontino a 78.0% chance to finish in the top four: 88.2% after a win, 75.4% after a draw, 66.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.2%, 10.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Nautico Recife v Novorizontino has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 31% / 28% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 31% / 26% / 43%: the biggest move is Novorizontino's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Nautico Recife win31%=
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Novorizontino win43%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.