10 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Celje vs Aluminij 1. SNL prediction & result

Celje
Referee: A. Jeric
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Celje 1-0 Aluminij.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Celje, 23% draw, 17% Aluminij — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celje at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celje97%Draw3%Aluminij0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Avdyli
10'
19'
P. Petrisko
55'
A. Bekavac
🔁L. Ticicout: M. Zabukovnik
62'
🔁M. Ivansekout: Z. Zuzek
63'
63'
🔁B. Sussoout: R. Ramsak
63'
🔁A. Bekavacout: D. Zajsek
🔁M. Kvesicout: V. Tusha
71'
🔁A. Kucysout: B. Kramer
71'
77'
🔁P. Petriskoout: M. Mladenovic
M. Avdyli
80'
🔁I. Calusicout: P. Daniel
81'
A. Tutyskinas
83'
86'
🔁B. Osujiout: A. Bloudek
87'
🔁M. Vrbanecout: I. Svrznjak
90+2'
R. Schaubach

Form going into Celje vs Aluminij

Celje

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen16 September 2026
  • L1-2Slovan Bratislava26 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Slovan Bratislava19 August 2026
  • W2-0Ararat-Armenia11 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Ararat-Armenia4 August 2026

Aluminij

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Dinamo Tirana30 July 2026
  • D1-1Dinamo Tirana23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Celje failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Celje scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Celje conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Celje146531913+623
7Aluminij154562114+717

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celje vs Aluminij

  • 2 September 2026Aluminij 0–2 Celje1. SNL
  • 26 April 2026Celje 5–0 Aluminij1. SNL
  • 5 March 2026Aluminij 2–1 Celje1. SNL
  • 1 November 2025Celje 2–1 Aluminij1. SNL
  • 17 August 2025Aluminij 2–3 Celje1. SNL
  • 30 March 2024Celje 2–2 Aluminij1. SNL

The result against the call

Celje beat Aluminij 1–0. The model had made a win for Celje its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: M. Avdyli 10' for Celje.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Celje a 76.2% chance to finish in the top four: 79.4% after a win, 71.7% after a draw, 69.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.4%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For Aluminij the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.7% going in: 23.6% after a win, 17.5% after a draw, 14.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.1%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Celje v Aluminij has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 60% / 23% / 17%: the biggest move is Celje's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Celje win60%▲ +7
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Aluminij win17%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.