10 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura 1. SNL prediction & result

Stadion Stozice, Ljubljana
Referee: A. Bubek
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Olimpija Ljubljana 3-3 Mura.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Olimpija Ljubljana, 24% draw, 15% Mura — fair odds of 1.64, 4.17 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Olimpija Ljubljana at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Olimpija Ljubljana5%Draw93%Mura2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽I. Tuci
31'
33'
A. Zeljkovic
⚽I. Tuci
52'
54'
⚽N. Kasalo
🔁B. Lourencoout: D. Mitrovski
61'
64'
A. Zalaznik
⚽A. Marin
65'
65'
🔁K. Kurtovicout: B. Dimitrov
69'
⚽D. Oroian
Diga
73'
74'
B. Dimitrov
75'
🔁S. Buticout: L. Bobicanec
75'
🔁N. Kasaloout: F. Jevsenak
78'
⚽M. Matic
🔁A. Marinout: L. Perea
85'
🔁D. Kojicout: M. Brest
85'
86'
Z. Petrovic
86'
🔁N. Kouterout: A. Korosec
86'
🔁A. Zalaznikout: I. Jelic
🔁A. Doffoout: A. Tamm
90+1'

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Olimpija Ljubljana156541713+423
9Mura152851526-1114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura

  • 25 July 2026Mura 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
  • 4 April 2026Mura 0–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
  • 31 January 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura1. SNL
  • 28 September 2025Mura 0–2 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
  • 19 July 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura1. SNL
  • 10 May 2025Mura 1–1 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL

The result against the call

Olimpija Ljubljana and Mura drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Olimpija Ljubljana at 61% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: I. Tuci 31' for Olimpija Ljubljana, I. Tuci 52' for Olimpija Ljubljana, N. Kasalo 54' for Mura, A. Marin 65' for Olimpija Ljubljana, D. Oroian 69' for Mura, M. Matic 78' for Mura.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Olimpija Ljubljana a 52.9% chance to finish in the top four: 55.6% after a win, 48.6% after a draw, 44.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 48.6%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

For Mura the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 87.3% going in: 82.0% after a win, 86.2% after a draw, 88.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 86.2%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Olimpija Ljubljana v Mura has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 54% / 27% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 61% / 24% / 15%: the biggest move is Olimpija Ljubljana's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Olimpija Ljubljana win61%▲ +7
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Mura win15%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.