Celta Vigo vs Levante La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 0-0 Levante.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Celta Vigo, 29% draw, 27% Levante — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Celta Vigo at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Levante
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13I. RaduG
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 21S. CáceresD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 28Andrés AntañónM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 10Iago AspasF
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 24C. DriouechF
- 30H. BurcioM
- 4A. FayeD
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 22Javi GalánD
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 25Iván VillarG
- 13M. RyanG
- 22J. ToljanD
- 2A. MandiD
- 3Ifeanyi NdukweD
- 29Nacho PérezD
- 6RequeM
- 5Hugo SoteloM
- 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
- 7BruguiF
- 21Etta EyongF
- 24T. FernándezF
- 14Jorge CabelloD
- 18E. BardeliM
- 27Paco CortésF
- 1Pablo CuñatG
- 17Víctor GarcíaD
- 11Yanis MusuayiF
- 35Huseini Alhassan NakohaD
- 10P. RatkovF
- 20Oriol ReyM
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Levante
Celta Vigo
La Liga
- L0-3away to Rayo Vallecano31 October 2026
- D0-0Real Betis25 October 2026
- W2-1Alaves18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Elche11 October 2026
Levante
La Liga
- L0-2Atletico Madrid31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad25 October 2026
- W3-1Athletic Club21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna16 October 2026
What these results say
- Celta Vigo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Celta Vigo failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Levante conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Levante failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Levante scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Levante
- 12 May 2026Celta Vigo 2–3 LevanteLa Liga
- 2 November 2025Levante 1–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 21 February 2022Celta Vigo 1–1 LevanteLa Liga
- 21 September 2021Levante 0–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 30 April 2021Celta Vigo 2–0 LevanteLa Liga
- 26 October 2020Levante 1–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Levante
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celta Vigo and Levante drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta Vigo at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 3.12–0.27.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Celta Vigo a 10.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.0% after a win, 11.4% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.4%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.
For Levante the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 14.3% going in: 9.1% after a win, 13.3% after a draw, 17.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.3%, 1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Celta Vigo v Levante has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Celta Vigo's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Celta Vigo win44%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Levante win27%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.