Villarreal vs Getafe La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Villarreal 2-0 Getafe.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Villarreal, 27% draw, 17% Getafe — fair odds of 1.79, 3.70 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Villarreal at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Villarreal vs Getafe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 2Logan CostaD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 20Carlos RomeroD
- 17T. BuchananM
- 16C. MaciaM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 21T. OluwaseyiF
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 27N. El JmiliF
- 3A. FreemanD
- 13Rubén GómezG
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 19N. PépéF
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 13David SoriaG
- 14Dani CarvajalD
- 15S. BoselliD
- 2D. DakonamD
- 22J. MojicaD
- 8N. GudeljM
- 21Andrés GarcíaM
- 23O. MangalaM
- 6Mario MartínM
- 10M. SatrianoM
- 19E. ÜnalF
- 20Iván AzónF
- 36I. K. DanfakhaF
- 3DavinchiD
- 35Diego FerrerG
- 16Francho SerranoM
- 17Kiko FemeníaD
- 1J. LetáčekG
- 28Alberto RiscoM
- 4S. SazonovD
Form going into Villarreal vs Getafe
Villarreal
La Liga
- L0-1Espanyol30 October 2026
- W2-1away to Valencia24 October 2026
- D0-0Elche17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Real Madrid10 October 2026
Getafe
La Liga
- W3-1Sevilla1 November 2026
- L0-4away to Athletic Club25 October 2026
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 October 2026
- L0-3away to Barcelona10 October 2026
What these results say
- Villarreal failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Villarreal failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Villarreal conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Getafe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Getafe failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Getafe had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Getafe
- 14 February 2026Getafe 2–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 6 December 2025Villarreal 2–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 30 March 2025Getafe 1–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 20 October 2024Villarreal 1–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 16 February 2024Villarreal 1–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 30 September 2023Getafe 0–0 VillarrealLa Liga
The result against the call
Villarreal beat Getafe 2–0. The model had made a win for Villarreal its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Tajon Buchanan 80' for Villarreal, Carlos Romero 90+1' for Villarreal. On expected goals it finished 2.38–0.68.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Villarreal a 8.6% chance to finish in the top four: 9.7% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 5.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.7%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
For Getafe the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.6% going in: 18.6% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 26.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.2%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.