Elche vs Real Betis La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Elche 0-2 Real Betis.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Elche, 27% draw, 40% Real Betis — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Betis at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Elche vs Real Betis
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DituroG
- 22Rubén SánchezD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 16Martim NetoM
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 29Ali HouaryM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 11Germán ValeraF
- 20Tete MorenteF
- 6BigasD
- 4Bambo DiabyD
- 19G. DianganaF
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 17JosanM
- 15K. LomónacoD
- 24A. OsorioF
- 30Alvaro PadillaF
- 1Álvaro VallésG
- 2Héctor BellerínD
- 5Marc BartraD
- 4NatanD
- 11Fran GarcíaD
- 8Pablo FornalsM
- 21Marc RocaM
- 7AntonyM
- 22IscoM
- 10A. EzzalzouliM
- 19T. ParrottF
- 25Dani CeballosM
- 13Diego CondeG
- 18N. DeossaM
- 15Álvaro FidalgoM
- 23Junior FirpoD
- 16V. GómezD
- 3Diego LlorenteD
- 14Iker LosadaF
- 27J. A. MoranteF
Form going into Elche vs Real Betis
Elche
La Liga
- L0-1Valencia1 November 2026
- W3-0away to Rayo Vallecano24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Villarreal17 October 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo11 October 2026
Real Betis
La Liga
- W2-1Malaga31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Celta Vigo25 October 2026
- L2-5Barcelona17 October 2026
- W5-2Osasuna11 October 2026
What these results say
- Elche failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Elche failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Elche kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Betis scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Betis conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Real Betis had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Real Betis
- 12 May 2026Real Betis 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 14 January 2026Real Betis 2–1 ElcheCopa del Rey
- 18 August 2025Elche 1–1 Real BetisLa Liga
- 24 February 2023Elche 2–3 Real BetisLa Liga
- 15 August 2022Real Betis 3–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 19 April 2022Real Betis 0–1 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Elche and Real Betis
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Real Betis
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Betis won 2–0 at Elche. The model had made a win for Real Betis its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Rodrigo Riquelme 81' for Real Betis, Marc Bartra 89' for Real Betis. On expected goals it finished 1.25–2.05.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Elche a 9.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.0% after a win, 8.5% after a draw, 11.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.3%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
For Real Betis the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 61.6% going in: 67.2% after a win, 60.8% after a draw, 55.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.2%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.