Girona vs Almeria Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Girona 0-1 Almeria.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Girona, 27% draw, 29% Almeria — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Girona at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Girona vs Almeria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13P. GazzanigaG
- 3Mateu MoreyD
- 16Alejandro FrancésD
- 38Holmes ZamoranoD
- 11Álex MorenoD
- 23Carles PérezM
- 24I. GonzalezM
- 8Fran BeltránM
- 30Unai HernándezM
- 19V. VanatF
- 9Abel RuizF
- 22Y. AsprillaM
- 29L. KouroumaM
- 25V. KrapyvtsovG
- 33M. FurtadoD
- 14Iván MoranteM
- 2A. MuminD
- 10PortuF
- 1Sergi PuigG
- 15Oleksandr PishchurF
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 2Marcos LunaD
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 15Leonardo LeloD
- 29S. DžodićM
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 11Sergio ArribasM
- 33Quim JunyentM
- 17B. CipengaM
- 24Miguel de la FuenteF
- 21ChumiD
- 12Léo BaptistãoF
- 23Adri EmbarbaF
- 9ThalysF
- 13Fernando MartínezG
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 20Álex SolaF
- 6Mikel VesgaM
Form going into Girona vs Almeria
Girona
Segunda División
- L0-1away to Real Sociedad II31 October 2026
- W5-1Celta de Vigo II24 October 2026
- W2-0FC Andorra18 October 2026
Almeria
Segunda División
- D1-1away to Eibar31 October 2026
- D2-2Oviedo24 October 2026
- W4-2away to Real Sociedad II17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Girona | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 24 |
| 1 | Almeria | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Girona vs Almeria
- 14 January 2024Almeria 0–0 GironaLa Liga
- 22 October 2023Girona 5–2 AlmeriaLa Liga
- 17 February 2023Girona 6–2 AlmeriaLa Liga
- 20 October 2022Almeria 3–2 GironaLa Liga
- 27 March 2022Almeria 0–1 GironaSegunda División
- 4 October 2021Girona 1–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Girona and Almeria
Girona
GoalsAssists
- V. Vanat52
- Y. Asprilla51
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almeria won 1–0 at Girona. The model had leaned towards a win for Girona at 44% and given a win for Almeria 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Miguel De La Fuente 67' for Almeria. On expected goals it finished 1.02–0.92.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Girona a 22.0% chance to finish in the top two: 26.1% after a win, 19.3% after a draw, 15.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.9%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.
For Almeria the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 43.5% going in: 52.1% after a win, 42.7% after a draw, 38.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.1%, 8.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Girona v Almeria has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 47% / 25% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is Girona's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Girona win44%▼ −3
- Draw27%▲ +2
- Almeria win29%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.