Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo Vallecano.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Real Sociedad, 22% draw, 24% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 5ZubeldiaD
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 14T. KuboM
- 24L. SučićM
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 15Pablo MarínM
- 12J. OchiengF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 22Héctor FortD
- 27Gorka CarreraF
- 34Luken BeitiaD
- 11Gonçalo GuedesF
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 17Sergio GómezF
- 25E. AuderoG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 8Unai LópezM
- 6P. CissM
- 19Jorge de FrutosM
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 14G. TsitaishviliM
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 20I. BalliuD
- 37Rayane BelidF
- 36G. BouareM
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 11R. NtekaM
- 7Isi PalazónM
- 21Fran PérezF
- 33J. VertrouwdD
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
La Liga
- L1-2away to Athletic Club1 November 2026
- W2-1Levante25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Malaga18 October 2026
- W3-2Deportivo La Coruna11 October 2026
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
- W3-0Celta Vigo31 October 2026
- L0-3Elche24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Osasuna19 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Real Sociedad conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Real Sociedad had three goals or more.
- Rayo Vallecano failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 22 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
- 26 April 2026Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 5 October 2025Real Sociedad 0–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 16 March 2025Rayo Vallecano 2–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 16 January 2025Real Sociedad 3–1 Rayo VallecanoCopa del Rey
- 18 August 2024Real Sociedad 1–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 27 January 2024Real Sociedad 0–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić40
- O. Óskarsson40
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Sociedad beat Rayo Vallecano 1–0. The model had made a win for Real Sociedad its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Orri Steinn Óskarsson 67' for Real Sociedad. On expected goals it finished 1.50–1.41.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Sociedad a 21.1% chance to finish in the top four: 23.7% after a win, 18.3% after a draw, 13.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.7%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
For Rayo Vallecano the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 13.9% going in: 8.2% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.5%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 57% / 22% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 54% / 22% / 24%: the biggest move is Real Sociedad's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Real Sociedad win54%▼ −3
- Draw22%=
- Rayo Vallecano win24%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.