8 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction & result

El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini, Gijon
Referee: Daniel Palencia Caballero
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sporting Gijon 1-2 Valladolid.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Sporting Gijon, 27% draw, 26% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting Gijon at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting Gijon0%Draw5%Valladolid95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Julien Ponceauassist: Iván Alejo
Hugo Guillamón
8'
Jorge Sáenz
18'
32'
Stanko Jurić
39'
⚽Tay Abedassist: Víctor Fernández
43'
David Torres
45'
Iván Alejo
Gaspar Campos
45+3'
🔁Hugo Guillamónout: Nacho Martín
45'
🔁Enol Prendes Ortizout: Diego Matabuena Álvarez
45'
Miguel Conde
73'
🔁Gaspar Camposout: Nikita Iosifov
73'
🔁Miguel Condeout: Andres Ferrari
73'
74'
🔁Thiago Ezequiel Ojedaout: Daniel Pérez Guerrero
74'
🔁Víctor Fernándezout: Luis Rodríguez Chacón
82'
🔁Adrian Arnuout: Victor Barbera
82'
🔁Iván Alejoout: Álvaro Pérez Campo
🔁Andres Cuencaout: Mamadou Loum
82'
⚽Guillermo Rosasassist: Nikita Iosifov
83'
89'
🔁Tay Abedout: Pablo Tomeo Félez
Juan Otero
90+1'
Juan Otero
90+1'

Match stats — Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid

63%Possession37%
21Shots15
6On target6
9Corners6
2.33xG1.23

Goals against chances

Sporting Gijon1 from 2.33 xGless than the chances were worth
Valladolid2 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting Gijon 4-4-2
  • 1Rubén YáñezG
  • 2Guille RosasD
  • 15Pablo VázquezD
  • 23Jorge SáenzD
  • 44Andrés CuencaD
  • 22Hugo GuillamónM
  • 14Álex CorrederaM
  • 27Enol PrendesM
  • 7Gaspar CamposM
  • 19J. OteroF
  • 28M. CondeF
Substitutes
  • 9A. FerrariF
  • 4E. GularteD
  • 34Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezM
  • 36B. RubioM
  • 5Diego SánchezD
  • 26Iker MartínezD
  • 6Nacho MartínM
  • 21M. LoumM
  • 13AranaG
Coach: N. Larcamón
Valladolid 4-3-3
  • 1Álvaro AcevesG
  • 14Iván AlejoD
  • 12Miguel RubioD
  • 4David TorresD
  • 18ClercD
  • 8T. OjedaM
  • 24S. JurićM
  • 21J. PonceauM
  • 23T. AbedF
  • 19Adrian ArnuncioF
  • 30Víctor FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 17Victor BarberáF
  • 11Yeray CabanzónF
  • 27Iván GarrielD
  • 6M. LachuerM
  • 20R. DuivenF
  • 15Pablo TomeoD
  • 7Luis ChacónF
  • 28Dani PérezM
  • 2TrilliD
Coach: Fran Escribá

Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid

Sporting Gijon

Segunda División

  • W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC1 November 2026
  • L0-4away to Castellón25 October 2026
  • W2-1Albacete17 October 2026

Valladolid

Segunda División

  • W4-3Leganes2 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Granada CF23 October 2026
  • L2-3Eldense18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Sporting Gijon147251617-123
12Valladolid145362221+118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid

  • 8 August 2026Sporting Gijon 2–4 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 February 2026Sporting Gijon 2–2 ValladolidSegunda División
  • 19 October 2025Valladolid 2–3 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 17 February 2024Sporting Gijon 1–1 ValladolidSegunda División
  • 11 August 2023Valladolid 2–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 28 January 2022Valladolid 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División

Leading scorers: Sporting Gijon and Valladolid

Sporting Gijon

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Valladolid

GoalsAssists

  • Adrian Arnuncio51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Valladolid won 2–1 at Sporting Gijon. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting Gijon at 47% and given a win for Valladolid 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Julien Ponceau 4' for Valladolid, Tay Abed 39' for Valladolid, Guillermo Rosas 83' for Sporting Gijon. Sent off: Juan Otero (Sporting Gijon) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 2.33–1.23.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valladolid a 17.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 11.9% after a win, 18.5% after a draw, 19.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.9%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sporting Gijon v Valladolid has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Sporting Gijon's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Sporting Gijon win47%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Valladolid win26%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.