Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Cerro Porteno 1-1 Deportivo Recoleta.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Cerro Porteno, 23% draw, 18% Deportivo Recoleta — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cerro Porteno at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. RoffoG
- 2F. DomínguezD
- 23G. VelázquezD
- 14L. QuintanaD
- 4A. CañeteD
- 15B. RiverosD
- 32C. BobadillaM
- 30G. GiménezM
- 18A. GamarraM
- 21S. AraújoF
- 19P. VegettiF
- 35M. ChaparroD
- 34C. ChenaM
- 13G. BenítezD
- 40M. KlimowiczM
- 12A. MartínezG
- 5J. MorelM
- 33H. MosqueraF
- 16I. RamírezD
- 7D. RodríguezM
- 12N. FerreiraG
- 15B. MedinaD
- 4M. PereiraD
- 3L. CardozoD
- 28L. MendozaD
- 20M. CañeteM
- 6J. EspínolaM
- 10A. SilvaM
- 34Mathías Nicolás Masi PuschkarevichM
- 24T. VidalF
- 30P. CharpentierF
- 7R. DomínguezM
- 14C. FigueredoD
- 8F. GaleanoM
- 33A. GonzálezM
- 39G. GuggiariF
- 19H. LópezM
- 1A. MarsegnoG
- 25Renzo José Martino CampuzanoD
- 26Juan Jose Sanabria YambayM
Form going into Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta
Cerro Porteno
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion4 November 2026
- L0-2Olimpia1 November 2026
- W3-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 October 2026
- D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L1-4away to Olimpia5 November 2026
- W3-0Sportivo Ameliano31 October 2026
- D1-1away to 2 de Mayo24 October 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026
What these results say
- Cerro Porteno scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cerro Porteno conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Recoleta scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 28 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta
- 3 September 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 3 May 2026Deportivo Recoleta 2–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 1 March 2026Cerro Porteno 2–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 3 October 2025Cerro Porteno 2–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 26 July 2025Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 28 April 2025Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Cerro Porteno and Deportivo Recoleta
Cerro Porteno
GoalsAssists
- P. Vegetti80
- J. Morel50
- D. Rodríguez45
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
- A. González51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cerro Porteno and Deportivo Recoleta drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Cerro Porteno at 59% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Paul Charpentier 58' for Deportivo Recoleta, Jorge Morel 81' for Cerro Porteno. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.88.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cerro Porteno a 15.5% chance to finish in the top four: 20.7% after a win, 7.2% after a draw, 3.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.2%, 8.3 points lower than before the match.
For Deportivo Recoleta the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 79.6% going in: 57.7% after a win, 77.3% after a draw, 86.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 77.3%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Cerro Porteno v Deportivo Recoleta has moved
First published on 1 Nov at 57% / 24% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 59% / 23% / 18%: the biggest move is Cerro Porteno's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Cerro Porteno win59%▲ +2
- Draw23%▼ −1
- Deportivo Recoleta win18%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.