Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 2 matches

20:30 UTC Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno — model 41% / 25% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 4.00 · 2.94. Evenly matched
23:00 UTC Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani — model 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.45 · 2.56. Edge: Club Guarani

21:00 UTC Olimpia vs Sportivo Trinidense — model 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.00 · 4.55. Edge: Olimpia
21:00 UTC Rubio NU vs Libertad Asuncion — model 29% / 25% / 46%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 4.00 · 2.17. One-sided: Libertad Asuncion

21:00 UTC 2 de Mayo vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo — model 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.57 · 4.55. Edge: 2 de Mayo
23:15 UTC Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno — model 46% / 30% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.33 · 4.17. Evenly matched

21:00 UTC Nacional Asuncion vs Rubio NU — model 65% / 21% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.54 · 4.76 · 7.14. One-sided: Nacional Asuncion
21:00 UTC Cerro Porteno vs Club Guarani — model 42% / 30% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.33 · 3.57. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC Libertad Asuncion vs 2 de Mayo — model 52% / 27% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.70 · 4.76. Edge: Libertad Asuncion
21:00 UTC Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia — model 25% / 23% / 52%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.00 · 4.35 · 1.92. One-sided: Olimpia
21:00 UTC Sportivo Trinidense vs Deportivo Recoleta — model 61% / 22% / 17%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.55 · 5.88. Edge: Sportivo Trinidense
21:00 UTC Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13. Evenly matched

21:00 UTC Club Guarani vs Sportivo Trinidense — model 39% / 30% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.33 · 3.23. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC Olimpia vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo — model 75% / 16% / 9%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.33 · 6.25 · 11.11. One-sided: Olimpia
21:00 UTC Rubio NU vs Cerro Porteno — model 29% / 26% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 3.85 · 2.22. Edge: Cerro Porteno
21:00 UTC 2 de Mayo vs Nacional Asuncion — model 29% / 32% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.13 · 2.56. Edge: Nacional Asuncion
21:00 UTC Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Luqueno — model 44% / 24% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 4.17 · 3.13. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion — model 29% / 28% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.57 · 2.33. Edge: Libertad Asuncion

7–9 November: the model called the result of 2 of 6 matches. Across all 42 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 50% of results.

Club Guarani 1–3 Olimpia — the model said 35% / 30% / 35%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Libertad Asuncion 3–0 Nacional Asuncion — the model said 32% / 31% / 37%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Cerro Porteno 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta — the model said 59% / 23% / 18%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
Sportivo Trinidense 3–0 Sportivo Ameliano — the model said 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–2 Rubio NU — the model said 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Sportivo Luqueno 3–0 2 de Mayo — the model said 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 2-1: result correct.

Top of the table

1. Olimpia — 42 pts from 19 (13W 3D 3L, goals 37–14)
2. Sportivo Trinidense — 34 pts from 19 (10W 4D 5L, goals 31–18)
3. Libertad Asuncion — 33 pts from 19 (10W 3D 6L, goals 28–20)
4. Nacional Asuncion — 32 pts from 19 (9W 5D 5L, goals 26–14)
5. Club Guarani — 31 pts from 19 (8W 7D 4L, goals 21–17)

The model's chance of finishing first in the Clausura, from 10,000 simulations of the 18 matches left: Olimpia 99.8%, Sportivo Trinidense 0.2%.

Leading scorers: E. Vera (Libertad Asuncion) 16 goals, A. Wlk (Deportivo Recoleta) 13 goals, P. Vegetti (Cerro Porteno) 8 goals.