Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Ameliano Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Sportivo Trinidense 3-0 Sportivo Ameliano.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Sportivo Trinidense, 24% draw, 18% Sportivo Ameliano — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sportivo Trinidense at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Ameliano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DufourG
- 23C. BenítezD
- 40A. da SilveiraD
- 6A. CañeteD
- 31A. MorinigoD
- 10N. ManáM
- 5N. GautoM
- 21G. VieraM
- 11L. AbreuM
- 20C. GonzálezF
- 7N. CamachoF
- 19A. CanoM
- 13Deivis Faustino Barone MoraF
- 30R. CornetM
- 9O. GiménezF
- 37L. GonzalezM
- 14S. MendozaM
- 29T. RayerF
- 2A. Ruiz DíazD
- 12V. SamudioG
- 35Á. SánchezG
- 21F. FrancoD
- 5H. BenítezD
- 22L. FalabellaD
- 19A. ParedesD
- 6J. BenítezM
- 7F. VeraM
- 20V. LarraldeM
- 10R. CabralM
- 31E. BritezM
- 17R. ToralesF
- 2Luciano SuarezD
- 15W. RodríguezM
- 13R. PeraltaM
- 18L. OrtizM
- 8E. MoreiraM
- 25L. BrunoF
- 16C. FaveroF
- 32G. CamargoM
- 3F. BáezD
Form going into Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Trinidense
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D0-0away to 2 de Mayo3 November 2026
- L2-4Rubio NU30 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nacional Asuncion24 October 2026
- W1-0Libertad Asuncion18 October 2026
Sportivo Ameliano
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-1Club Guarani4 November 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Recoleta31 October 2026
- L2-3Olimpia25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Cerro Porteno18 October 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Trinidense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sportivo Trinidense kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sportivo Trinidense had two goals or fewer.
- Sportivo Ameliano did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sportivo Ameliano had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 18 | +13 | 34 |
| 9 | Sportivo Ameliano | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Ameliano
- 2 September 2026Sportivo Ameliano 0–3 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 May 2026Sportivo Ameliano 1–2 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 19 March 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 26 November 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 8 September 2025Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 4 April 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Trinidense and Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Trinidense
GoalsAssists
- F. Romero71
Sportivo Ameliano
GoalsAssists
- C. Ocampos53
- R. Torales51
- E. Moreira50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sportivo Trinidense beat Sportivo Ameliano 3–0. The model had made a win for Sportivo Trinidense its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Clementino González 44' for Sportivo Trinidense, Alan Tobias Morinigo 74' for Sportivo Trinidense, Oscar Gimenez (penalty) 90' for Sportivo Trinidense. On expected goals it finished 1.43–0.93.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sportivo Trinidense a 68.2% chance to finish in the top four: 80.0% after a win, 52.2% after a draw, 39.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.0%, 11.8 points higher than before the match.
For Sportivo Ameliano the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.9% going in: 2.1% after a win, 9.5% after a draw, 16.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.1%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.