Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Rubio NU Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2-2 Rubio NU.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 27% draw, 31% Rubio NU — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Rubio NU
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31L. FrancoG
- 2L. EstecheD
- 19Luis Fernando Cáceres MacielD
- 21H. GonzalezD
- 13Isaias FretesD
- 28P. GerzelM
- 39Lucas Andres Cohener GonzalezM
- 32F. AragónM
- 22K. FerreiraM
- 23M. FerreiraF
- 9J. BarriosF
- 24Matias AgueroD
- 16Á. BenítezM
- 4A. DoldánD
- 25K. FernándezM
- 27Elias OrtizM
- 5T. ParedesD
- 15B. PiñataresM
- 12W. QuiñónezG
- 7S. SalcedoF
- 25F. FraguedaG
- 13V. CabañasD
- 3J. VallejosD
- 5P. ÁlvarezD
- 19M. GarroneD
- 23Tobías LeivaM
- 2R. FerreiraM
- 26S. FretesM
- 18M. AcostaM
- 11M. RoldánM
- 9R. Ruiz DíazF
- 27A. LedesmaM
- 10W. MendietaM
- 24L. GómezD
- 40Estiven Osmar Pérez YegrosF
- 14M. RamosD
- 8R. RojasM
- 30M. De CarvalhoF
- 16J. GonzálezD
- 1T. CanterosG
Form going into Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Rubio NU
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W2-0away to Nacional Asuncion3 November 2026
- W2-1Libertad Asuncion31 October 2026
- L1-3Cerro Porteno25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sportivo Luqueno18 October 2026
Rubio NU
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-5Sportivo Luqueno5 November 2026
- W4-2away to Sportivo Trinidense30 October 2026
- L0-2Club Guarani23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Recoleta16 October 2026
What these results say
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Club Sp. San Lorenzo had three goals or more.
- Rubio NU conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rubio NU failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rubio NU failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 11 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Rubio NU
- 1 September 2026Rubio NU 3–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 26 April 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 26 February 2026Rubio NU 2–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 20 July 2025Rubio NU 2–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Intermedia
- 14 April 2025Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Rubio NUDivision Intermedia
- 2 September 2024Rubio NU 0–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Intermedia
Leading scorers: Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Rubio NU
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- M. Ferreira51
Rubio NU
GoalsAssists
- R. Ruiz Díaz43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Rubio NU drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Barrios 10' for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón 13' for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, Sergio Fretes 16' for Rubio NU, E. Alfonso (penalty) 84' for Rubio NU. On expected goals it finished 1.86–1.79.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rubio NU a 80.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 62.7% after a win, 83.9% after a draw, 91.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 83.9%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Rubio NU has moved
First published on 1 Nov at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Club Sp. San Lorenzo's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo win42%▲ +9
- Draw27%=
- Rubio NU win31%▼ −9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.