Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Libertad Asuncion 3-0 Nacional Asuncion.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Libertad Asuncion, 31% draw, 37% Nacional Asuncion — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Nacional Asuncion at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12R. MorínigoG
- 2A. BenítezD
- 3R. RojasD
- 23N. FreireD
- 4N. GiménezD
- 19I. FrancoM
- 6Á. CampuzanoM
- 21L. SanabriaM
- 11E. VeraM
- 26I. RamirezF
- 10L. MelgarejoF
- 13J. BogarínM
- 8F. CarrizoM
- 28M. FernándezF
- 31T. FernándezD
- 5G. FloresD
- 14A. FretesD
- 7A. ManzurM
- 33C. MartínezM
- 32L. NequecaurF
- 30S. RojasG
- 3M. CoronelD
- 22R. MelgarejoD
- 5G. BenítezD
- 29S. VargasD
- 25Roberto Carlos Ramírez AntúnezM
- 33O. GaonaM
- 8F. JaraM
- 13L. MezaM
- 10J. ColmánM
- 9H. BenítezF
- 7I. BailoneF
- 20Rodolfo ArguelloD
- 39D. CaballeroF
- 19L. GonzálezF
- 1G. OrtizG
- 36F. PelozoF
- 27R. PrietoF
- 32F. PumpidoM
- 28A. SamudioF
Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-1Cerro Porteno4 November 2026
- L1-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo31 October 2026
- W1-0Sportivo Luqueno23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026
Nacional Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 November 2026
- W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno31 October 2026
- L0-1Sportivo Trinidense24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026
What these results say
- Libertad Asuncion failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Libertad Asuncion conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Libertad Asuncion had two goals or fewer.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Nacional Asuncion had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 33 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
- 2 September 2026Nacional Asuncion 3–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 May 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 18 March 2026Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 27 September 2025Nacional Asuncion 3–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 19 July 2025Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 11 April 2025Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera162
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- H. Benítez66
- I. Valdez61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Libertad Asuncion beat Nacional Asuncion 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Nacional Asuncion at 37% and given a win for Libertad Asuncion 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Rodrigo Melgarejo (own goal) 15' for Libertad Asuncion, Ivan Franco 52' for Libertad Asuncion, Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez 60' for Libertad Asuncion. On expected goals it finished 1.36–1.10.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Libertad Asuncion a 44.7% chance to finish in the top four: 69.0% after a win, 42.0% after a draw, 26.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.0%, 24.3 points higher than before the match.
For Nacional Asuncion the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 89.2% going in: 98.5% after a win, 91.3% after a draw, 77.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.6%, 11.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Libertad Asuncion v Nacional Asuncion has moved
First published on 1 Nov at 29% / 30% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 32% / 31% / 37%: the biggest move is Nacional Asuncion's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Libertad Asuncion win32%▲ +3
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Nacional Asuncion win37%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.