Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets First League prediction & result
Final score: Cherno More Varna 2-3 Ludogorets.
Before kick-off the model made it 16% Cherno More Varna, 24% draw, 60% Ludogorets — fair odds of 6.25, 4.17 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 60% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 81Kristian TomovG
- 3Zhivko AtanasovD
- 5Luciano SquadroneD
- 26João BandaroD
- 50Ertan TombakD
- 71Vasil PanayotovM
- 24David TelesM
- 11Mohamed AchiM
- 13Emanuil NyagolovD
- 19Georgi LazarovF
- 20Aleksandar KolevF
- 29Berk BeyhanM
- 39Nikolay ZlatevM
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 9Jorge PadillaF
- 31Damyan HristovG
- 37Ventsislav KerchevD
- 93Georgi VentsislavovD
- 23Martin BanevM
- 99Idris BounaasM
- 39Hendrik BonmannG
- 2Joel AnderssonD
- 15Edvin KurtulusD
- 3Anton NedyalkovD
- 42Simeon ShishkovD
- 18Ivajlo ChochevM
- 26Filip KaločM
- 7Alberto SalidoF
- 14Petar StanićM
- 37Bernard TekpeteyM
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 20Aguibou CamaraM
- 10Nathan FernandesF
- 22Mihail PolendakovD
- 9Kwadwo DuahF
- 23Deroy DuarteM
- 1Sergio PadtG
- 24Olivier VerdonD
- 27Vinicius NogueiraD
- 40Aleksandar MarinovM
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets
Cherno More Varna
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026
Ludogorets
- W2-1Botev Vratsa2 August 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Tel Aviv30 July 2026
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse27 July 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Tel Aviv23 July 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets
- 9 August 2026Cherno More Varna 2–3 LudogoretsFirst League
- 9 April 2026Ludogorets 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 2 November 2025Cherno More Varna 0–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 13 May 2025Cherno More Varna 2–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 27 April 2025Ludogorets 2–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 22 February 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 LudogoretsFirst League