Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Botev Vratsa 0-3 Slavia Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Botev Vratsa, 27% draw, 14% Slavia Sofia — fair odds of 1.69, 3.70 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Vratsa at 59% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 94Marin OrlinovG
- 97Vladislav NaydenovM
- 36Milen StoevD
- 4Ivan GoranovD
- 3Sainey SanyangD
- 12Iliya YurukovM
- 8Antoan StoyanovM
- 24Martin SmolenskiM
- 81Kassim HadjiM
- 79Martin PetkovF
- 99Preslav BorukovF
- 10José GallegosM
- 98Lyubomir VasilevG
- 9Daniel GenovM
- 11Martin AchkovD
- 23Luboslav StoyanovG
- 88Lazar BoyanovD
- 6Abdullah KichukovM
- 17Samuil MechevM
- 2Emil PetrovM
- 99Ivan AndonovG
- 87Diego FerraressoD
- 4Nikola SavićD
- 5David MalembanaD
- 26Dimitar BurovM
- 95Vladimir MiletićM
- 71Kristiyan StoyanovM
- 77Emil StoevM
- 7Roberto RaychevM
- 27Umaro BaldéM
- 88Vladimir NikolovF
- 11Mouhamed DossoM
- 10Yanis GuermoucheF
- 17Vasil KazaldzhievF
- 23Ilian AntonovF
- 9Yoan BornosuzovF
- 63Levi NtumbaG
- 3Martin GeorgievD
- 24Lazar MarinD
- 20Jordan Semedo VarelaD
Form going into Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
- L1-2away to Ludogorets2 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194825 July 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 July 2026
Slavia Sofia
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Arda Kardzhali24 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia
- 10 August 2026Botev Vratsa 0–3 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 26 April 2026Slavia Sofia 1–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 24 November 2025Botev Vratsa 0–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 11 October 2025Slavia Sofia 3–3 Botev VratsaFriendlies Clubs
- 20 July 2025Slavia Sofia 2–2 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 25 May 2025Botev Vratsa 2–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League