10 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna First League prediction & result

Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Botev Plovdiv 3-2 Spartak Varna.

Before kick-off the model made it 15% Botev Plovdiv, 17% draw, 68% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 6.67, 5.88 and 1.47. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Spartak Varna at 68% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Mascoteassist: V. Mendes
4'
⚽A. Chandarovassist: C. Meotti
28'
⚽S. Kaluassist: C. Meotti
39'
46'
🔁S. Majorout: R. Sousa
🔁B. Heinout: B. Kostov
46'
🔁N. Ilievout: M. Rodrigues
46'
58'
⚽S. Petrov (OG)
🔁Mascoteout: O. M. Chidera
62'
🔁C. Meottiout: V. Vidolov
62'
67'
🔁T. Chunchukovout: A. Ahmedov
67'
🔁T. Silvaout: Bua
67'
🔁B. Hanneout: A. Ivanov
68'
Jota Lopes
84'
🔁Jota Lopesout: A. Gomes
S. Kalu
86'
🔁S. Kaluout: W. Chimezie
90+2'
90+3'
⚽A. Ahmedovassist: A. Ivanov

Line-ups

Botev Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 29Daniel NaumovG
  • 82Vladimir MendesD
  • 87Simeon PetrovD
  • 20Timothy AwanyD
  • 27Bryan-Anthony Chibuike HeinD
  • 77Lucas AraujoM
  • 10Asen ChandarovM
  • 66Carlos MeottiM
  • 7Nikola IlievM
  • 90Samuel KaluM
  • 30Franklin MascoteF
Substitutes
  • 15Bogdan KostovD
  • 19Mauro RodriguesM
  • 9Chidera Micheal OkohF
  • 88Williams Chimezie OluebubeF
  • 21Nikolay PrandzhevG
  • 4Nikola SoldoD
  • 22Marvin SengerD
  • 16Veliyan VidolovM
  • 17Georgi MilanovM
Coach: Stanislav Genchev
Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 23Plamen IlievG
  • 76David Valverde JuanM
  • 72Vasco OliveiraD
  • 45Joey TshitokuD
  • 4Boris IvanovD
  • 17Tsvetoslav MarinovM
  • 19Sámuel MajorM
  • 10Jota LopesM
  • 82Tomás SilvaM
  • 11Boubacar HanneF
  • 9Tsvetelin ChunchukovF
Substitutes
  • 6Ricardo SousaM
  • 7BuáM
  • 70Ahmed AhmedovF
  • 77Anton IvanovF
  • 80Ángel Gomes ArevaloF
  • 1Pedro VictorG
  • 44Angel GranchovD
  • 5Dimo KrastevD
  • 14Daniel PavlovD
Coach: Yasen Petrov

Form going into Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Botev Plovdiv

  • W1-0Cherno More Varna1 August 2026
  • L2-3away to CSKA Sofia27 July 2026
  • D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 July 2026

Spartak Varna

  • W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
  • D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Botev Plovdiv94141314-113
8Spartak Varna92431014-410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

  • 10 August 2026Botev Plovdiv 3–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 4 July 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Spartak VarnaFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 April 2026Botev Plovdiv 5–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 28 January 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Spartak VarnaFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 December 2025Spartak Varna 0–2 Botev PlovdivCup
  • 24 October 2025Spartak Varna 3–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.