Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Septemvri Sofia 0-3 CSKA Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Septemvri Sofia, 26% draw, 44% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 44% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 12Vladimir IvanovG
- 13Kubrat OnashchiD
- 4Martin HristovD
- 3Sebas WadeD
- 8Bozhidar PenchevD
- 26Valentine OzornwaforD
- 5Yoan BaurenskiM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 11Aleksandar DzhamovF
- 17Nicolas FontaineM
- 29Frantzety HerardF
- 33Galin IvanovM
- 27André LiberalF
- 24Zahari AtanasovM
- 28Stoyan StoichkovM
- 21Nikolay KrastevG
- Petar GospodinovD
- 23Borislav StoichkovD
- 20Bozhidar TomovskiD
- 30Viktor DobrevM
- 21Fedor LapoukhovG
- 99James Eto'oM
- 5Jean-Philippe GbaminD
- 32Facundo RodríguezD
- 11Mohamed Amine BrahimiM
- 94Isaac SoletM
- 6Bruno JordãoM
- 30Petko PanayotovM
- 17Ángelo MartinoD
- 10Joël ZwartsF
- 28Ioannis PittasF
- 19Andrey YordanovD
- 7Max EbongM
- 9Leandro GodoyF
- 8Stefano SensiM
- 80Georgi ChorbadzhiyskiM
- 25Dimitar EvtimovG
- 14Teodor IvanovD
- 2PastorD
- 90Aleks TunchevD
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
- L0-3away to Levski Sofia1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 July 2026
- D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026
CSKA Sofia
- W3-0away to Maccabi Tel Aviv6 August 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- D0-0Qarabag30 July 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Qarabag23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
- 9 August 2026Septemvri Sofia 0–3 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 28 February 2026Septemvri Sofia 2–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 11 October 2025CSKA Sofia 4–0 Septemvri SofiaFriendlies Clubs
- 13 September 2025CSKA Sofia 3–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 29 March 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 5 October 2024CSKA Sofia 0–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League