St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 2-3 Portland Timbers.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% St. Louis City, 22% draw, 23% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 1.82, 4.55 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
St. Louis City at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 39B. LundtG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseM
- 42D. DownsF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 28M. PerezM
- 18C. BrunetM
- 11S. BecherF
- 4M. FallD
- 27F. FallD
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 48Riley LynchF
- 31C. OlivaresG
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 41J. PantemisG
- 12R. HernándezD
- 2J. WatermanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 27J. ForyD
- 80J. OrtizM
- 21D. CharáM
- 17C. BassettM
- 7A. LassiterF
- 10David Pereira da CostaF
- 99K. VeldeF
- 22O. FernandezF
- 73Eric IzoitaM
- 14V. JanssenF
- 15E. MillerD
- 23Ian SmithD
- 26H. SulteG
- 20F. SurmanD
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 28A. AravenaF
Form going into St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Minnesota United FC17 October 2026
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer
- W3-2Charlotte25 October 2026
- D0-0Colorado Rapids18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
| 7 | Portland Timbers | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers
- 10 September 2026Portland Timbers 2–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2025St. Louis City 2–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 8 June 2025Portland Timbers 2–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 25 August 2024Portland Timbers 4–4 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Portland Timbers
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Portland Timbers
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 62 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Portland Timbers won 3–2 at St. Louis City. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Louis City at 55% and given a win for Portland Timbers 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kristoffer Velde 42' for Portland Timbers, David Da Costa 45+3' for Portland Timbers, Kristoffer Velde 48' for Portland Timbers, Daniel Edelman 58' for St. Louis City, Rafael Navarro Leal 90+1' for St. Louis City. Sent off: Kamal Miller (Portland Timbers) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 2.07–0.89.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave St. Louis City a 3.8% chance to finish top of the Western Conference: 5.5% after a win, under 1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.
For Portland Timbers the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 26.5% going in: 5.1% after a win, 21.6% after a draw, 34.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.1%, 21.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on St. Louis City v Portland Timbers has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 59% / 21% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 55% / 22% / 23%: the biggest move is St. Louis City's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- St. Louis City win55%▼ −4
- Draw22%▲ +1
- Portland Timbers win23%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.