Criciuma vs America Mineiro Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Criciuma 1-0 America Mineiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Criciuma, 25% draw, 15% America Mineiro — fair odds of 1.67, 4.00 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Criciuma at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Criciuma vs America Mineiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32AirtonG
- 13WaguininhoD
- 37César MartinsD
- 97Willean LepoD
- 4Luciano CastánD
- 22Marcelo HermesD
- 14RonaldM
- 8Guilherme LoboM
- 7Fellipe MateusM
- 10Jhonata RobertF
- 9NicolasF
- 33YuriF
- 34Bruno AlvesD
- 77Diego GonçalvesF
- 5EduardoM
- 31Hiago Accinelli da RozaM
- 41Jean IrmerM
- 6MarcinhoD
- 91R. OteroM
- 11RomarinhoF
- 91Bruno BrígidoG
- 4Rafael BarcelosD
- 45Ricardo SilvaD
- 3L. SosaD
- 25T. OstchegaD
- 88BarretoM
- 93J. JiménezM
- 20Paulo VictorM
- 77M. SegoviaM
- 30L. MontesM
- 9WillianF
- 55Otavio GoncalvesM
- 7Guilherme ParedeF
- 8Felipe AmaralM
- 5F. ElizariM
- 27CássioG
- 71Cristian Do Espirito Santo RodriguesD
- 32FilipeD
- 99Marcelo MacolaF
- 37Cesar Leme Do Nascimento JulioM
Form going into Criciuma vs America Mineiro
Criciuma
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Ceara8 October 2026
- W2-0away to Londrina2 October 2026
America Mineiro
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Fortaleza EC7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Goianiense3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Criciuma | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 62 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 38 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 57 | -30 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Criciuma vs America Mineiro
- 23 June 2026America Mineiro 0–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 12 October 2025Criciuma 2–1 America MineiroSerie B
- 21 June 2025America Mineiro 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 10 June 2021Criciuma 2–2 America MineiroCopa Do Brasil
- 3 June 2021America Mineiro 0–0 CriciumaCopa Do Brasil
The result against the call
Criciuma beat America Mineiro 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Criciuma at 60%. The goal: César Martins 49' for Criciuma. On expected goals it finished 1.55–0.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Criciuma a 18.5% chance to finish in the top four: 22.5% after a win, 10.6% after a draw, 6.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.5%, 4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Criciuma v America Mineiro has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 53% / 28% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 60% / 25% / 15%: the biggest move is Criciuma's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Criciuma win60%▲ +7
- Draw25%▼ −3
- America Mineiro win15%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.