Fortaleza EC vs CRB Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Fortaleza EC 2-2 CRB.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Fortaleza EC, 22% draw, 20% CRB — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Fortaleza EC at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortaleza EC vs CRB
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1João RicardoG
- 22MaíltonD
- 3Lucas GazalD
- 6T. CardonaD
- 13Maurício Júnior Lima RodriguesD
- 88Lucas SashaM
- 8RonaldM
- 29RodrigoM
- 21J. CantilloF
- 32Luiz FernandoF
- 16Pedro HenriqueF
- 11VitinhoF
- 17Nathan FogaçaF
- 20JaílsonM
- 38LuccaM
- 75RodriguinhoM
- 77Paulo BayaF
- 31WellitonF
- 25Vinícius SilvestreG
- 10Lucas CrispimM
- 1Vitor CaetanoG
- 32HeredaD
- 33LynconD
- 22BressanD
- 36Lucas LovatD
- 21Pedro CastroM
- 17ThiaguinhoM
- 8CrystopherM
- 10DanielM
- 97Dadá BelmonteM
- 28MikaelF
- 20Vinicius BarataF
- 50LuizãoM
- 26EstevãoM
- 12MatheusG
- 16MayconD
- 27Fábio AlemãoD
- 9João NetoF
- 18GeovaneM
- 7Douglas BaggioF
Form going into Fortaleza EC vs CRB
Fortaleza EC
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to America Mineiro7 October 2026
- D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
CRB
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Atletico Goianiense7 October 2026
- L1-3away to São Bernardo2 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 65 |
| 7 | CRB | 38 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortaleza EC vs CRB
- 21 June 2026CRB 1–1 Fortaleza ECSerie B
- 14 May 2026CRB 0–0 Fortaleza ECCopa Do Brasil
- 22 April 2026Fortaleza EC 2–1 CRBCopa Do Brasil
- 27 March 2025Fortaleza EC 0–1 CRBCopa do Nordeste
- 9 June 2024CRB 2–0 Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste
Leading scorers: Fortaleza EC and CRB
Fortaleza EC
GoalsAssists
- Maílton103
CRB
GoalsAssists
- Mikael174
- Crystopher78
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fortaleza EC and CRB drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Fortaleza EC at 58% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Maílton 11' for Fortaleza EC, Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues 42' for CRB, Pedro Castro (own goal) 45' for Fortaleza EC, Crystopher 54' for CRB. On expected goals it finished 0.00–0.00.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortaleza EC a 81.1% chance to finish in the top four: 88.9% after a win, 74.1% after a draw, 60.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 74.1%, 7 points lower than before the match.
For CRB the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 7.8% going in: 22.5% after a win, 7.6% after a draw, 2.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.6%.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fortaleza EC v CRB has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 52% / 25% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 58% / 22% / 20%: the biggest move is Fortaleza EC's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Fortaleza EC win58%▲ +6
- Draw22%▼ −3
- CRB win20%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.