Bosnia & Herzegovina
vs
Romania
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–0 Romania
The model makes it 41% Bosnia & Herzegovina, 29% draw, 30% Romania — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.37, Romania 1.11.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Bosnia & Herzegovina's rating is built from its last 4 matches; Romania's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Bosnia & Herzegovina are 2nd on 8 points from 5 games; Romania are bottom on 3 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
- Bosnia & Herzegovina have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Sweden.
- Romania have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Poland.
- Last 5 meetings: Bosnia & Herzegovina 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 September 2026, ended Romania 2–4 Bosnia & Herzegovina.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Romania
Has the model earned this number?
Bosnia & Herzegovina at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Romania
Bosnia & Herzegovina
UEFA Nations League
- L2-3away to Sweden14 November 2026
- W1-0Poland5 October 2026
- D1-1Sweden2 October 2026
- W4-2away to Romania28 September 2026
- D0-0away to Poland25 September 2026
Romania
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Poland14 November 2026
- L0-1Sweden5 October 2026
- L0-6away to Poland2 October 2026
- L2-4Bosnia & Herzegovina28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sweden25 September 2026
What these results say
- Bosnia & Herzegovina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Romania conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Romania failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Romania had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 4 | Romania | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Romania
Bosnia & Herzegovina and Romania have met 5 times in the records we hold, Bosnia & Herzegovina has won 4 of them to Romania's 1.
The record
Bosnia & Herzegovina won the last one 4–2 on 28 Sep 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 |
| Romania | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 |
Between them these 5 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 3.40 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Sep 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueRomania 2–4 Bosnia & Herzegovina - 15 Nov 2025
World Cup - Qualification EuropeBosnia & Herzegovina 3–1 Romania - 21 Mar 2025
World Cup - Qualification EuropeRomania 0–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina - 26 Sep 2022
UEFA Nations LeagueRomania 4–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina - 7 Jun 2022
UEFA Nations LeagueBosnia & Herzegovina 1–0 Romania
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Romania's attack rates 14% above Bosnia & Herzegovina's, and Bosnia & Herzegovina concede 24% fewer than Romania. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0.83 | 0.93 |
| Romania | 0.95 | 1.22 |
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bosnia & Herzegovina the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Bosnia & Herzegovina against 1.11 for Romania. Bosnia & Herzegovina's attack/defence rating is 0.83/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.22 for Romania.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 41% for Bosnia & Herzegovina to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bosnia & Herzegovina to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Bosnia & Herzegovina's ratings add 1 point and Romania's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Bosnia & Herzegovina's ratings38%+1
- Romania's ratings41%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.