Alianza Atletico
vs
FBC Melgar
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Alianza Atletico 1–2 FBC Melgar
The model makes it 36% Alianza Atletico, 27% draw, 37% FBC Melgar — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Alianza Atletico 1.50, FBC Melgar 1.52.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Alianza Atletico's rating is built from 69 Primera División (Peru) matches and FBC Melgar's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Alianza Atletico are 9th on 49 points from 33 games; FBC Melgar are 3rd on 57 points from 33 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Alianza Atletico have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC Cajamarca.
- FBC Melgar have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Juan Pablo II College.
- Last 6 meetings: FBC Melgar 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended FBC Melgar 3–1 Alianza Atletico.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar
Has the model earned this number?
FBC Melgar at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
Primera División
- L0-2away to FC Cajamarca7 November 2026
- W1-0Juan Pablo II College31 October 2026
- W3-2Deportivo Garcilaso28 October 2026
- L1-4away to Sport Huancayo24 October 2026
- L1-4Universitario18 October 2026
FBC Melgar
Primera División
- W2-1Juan Pablo II College7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Sport Huancayo2 November 2026
- D1-1Comerciantes Unidos30 October 2026
- W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca23 October 2026
- W4-2Deportivo Garcilaso17 October 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Atletico scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Atletico conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FBC Melgar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FBC Melgar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for FBC Melgar.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 49 | 48 | +1 | 49 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 38 | +18 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar
- 31 May 2026FBC Melgar 3–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 1 August 2025Alianza Atletico 0–0 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 24 February 2025FBC Melgar 2–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 25 July 2024Alianza Atletico 3–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 10 February 2024FBC Melgar 1–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 15 September 2023FBC Melgar 4–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
GoalsAssists
- C. Penilla95
FBC Melgar
GoalsAssists
- B. Cuesta156
- J. Vidales141
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FBC Melgar the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Alianza Atletico against 1.52 for FBC Melgar. Alianza Atletico's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.42 for FBC Melgar.
How the model reaches 37% for FBC Melgar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FBC Melgar to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Alianza Atletico's ratings add 4 points and FBC Melgar's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Alianza Atletico's ratings33%+4
- FBC Melgar's ratings37%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Alianza Atletico at home · FBC Melgar away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Alianza Atletico 33, FBC Melgar 33.
Alianza Atletico score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); FBC Melgar have let in 6 there.
FBC Melgar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (15 goals); Alianza Atletico have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.