19 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

Toronto FC vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result

BMO Field, Toronto
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Toronto FC 3-3 Charlotte.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Toronto FC, 26% draw, 41% Charlotte — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Charlotte at 41% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Toronto FC0%Draw3%Charlotte97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽R. Alokoassist: A. Westwood
⚽M. Cimermancicassist: J. Sargent
13'
20'
⚽I. Toklomatiassist: L. Abada
W. Zimmerman
56'
58'
⚽H. Kesslerassist: A. Westwood
🔁A. Coelloout: Matheus Pereira
60'
69'
🔁R. Alokoout: T. Smalls
69'
🔁L. Abadaout: A. Saint-Maximin
⚽D. Salloiassist: T. Corbeanu
76'
79'
🔁I. Toklomatiout: A. Goodwin
79'
🔁P. Bielout: L. de la Torre
🔁M. Cimermancicout: D. Etienne
82'
🔁B. Kuscevicout: Z. Monlouis
83'
Matheus Pereira
85'
⚽N. Dorschassist: D. Etienne
90'
90+4'
🔁B. Bronicoout: D. Diani
🔁N. Dorschout: K. Franklin
90+5'

Match stats — Toronto FC vs Charlotte

46%Possession54%
16Shots16
6On target10
6Corners5
1.9xG1.35

Goals against chances

Toronto FC3 from 1.90 xGmore than the chances were worth
Charlotte3 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Luka GavranG
  • 22Richie LaryeaD
  • 25Walker ZimmermanD
  • 13Benjamin KuscevicD
  • 38Jackson GilmanD
  • 14Alonso CoelloM
  • 6Niklas DorschM
  • 7Theo CorbeanuM
  • 71Markus CimermancicM
  • 20Dániel SallóiM
  • 9Josh SargentF
Substitutes
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 11Derrick EtienneF
  • 12Zane MonlouisD
  • 19Kobe FranklinD
  • 23William YarbroughG
  • 44Raheem EdwardsD
  • 78Malik HenryM
  • 99Jules-Anthony VilsaintF
  • 17Emilio AristizábalF
Coach: Robin Fraser
Charlotte 4-3-3
  • 1Kristijan KahlinaG
  • 35Will ClearyD
  • 22Henry KesslerD
  • 3Tim ReamD
  • 23David SchneggD
  • 8Ashley WestwoodM
  • 16Pep BielM
  • 13Brandt BronicoM
  • 37Rodolfo AlokoF
  • 9Idan ToklomatiF
  • 11Liel AbadaF
Substitutes
  • 10Allan Saint-MaximinF
  • 25Tyger SmallsF
  • 17Luca De La TorreM
  • 7Archie GoodwinF
  • 28Djibril DianiM
  • 21Tyler MillerG
  • 14Nathan ByrneD
  • 4Andrew PrivettD
  • 44Morrison AgyemangD
Coach: Dean Smith

Form going into Toronto FC vs Charlotte

Toronto FC

  • W2-1New England Revolution15 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New York City FC31 July 2026
  • L1-2away to DC United25 July 2026
  • D0-0away to New England Revolution22 July 2026

Charlotte

  • W3-1Columbus Crew15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Chicago Fire2 August 2026
  • W2-0away to New York Red Bulls25 July 2026
  • D2-2Atlanta United FC23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs Charlotte

  • 19 August 2026Toronto FC 3–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 16 May 2026Charlotte 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 26 July 2025Charlotte 2–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 31 May 2025Toronto FC 0–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 13 April 2024Charlotte 3–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 9 March 2024Toronto FC 1–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Toronto FC and Charlotte

Toronto FC

No leading scorers listed yet.

Charlotte

  • Pep Biel11 goals6 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.