Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Orlando City SC 1-2 Chicago Fire.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Orlando City SC, 27% draw, 30% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando City SC at 43% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 71Maxime CrépeauG
- 24Griffin DorseyD
- 4David BrekaloD
- 6Robin JanssonD
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 16Wilder CartagenaM
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 77Iván AnguloM
- 7Antoine GriezmannM
- 14Tyrese SpicerM
- 22Justin EllisF
- 19Zakaria TaifiM
- 87Marco PašalićF
- 11Tiago SouzaF
- 9Daryl DikeF
- 20Eduard AtuestaM
- 12Javier OteroG
- 57Iago SilvaD
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 35Joran GerbetM
- 1Chris BradyG
- 24Jonathan DeanD
- 16Joel WatermanD
- 3Jack ElliottD
- 15Andrew GutmanD
- 29David PorebaM
- 42Dje Tah D'AvillaM
- 6Anton SalétrosM
- 12Puso DithejaneF
- 9Robert LewandowskiF
- 19Jonathan BambaF
- 14Viktor RadojevićD
- 17Robin LodM
- 7Maren Haile-SelassieM
- 5Samuel RogersD
- 44Josh CohenG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 22Mauricio PinedaD
- 47Sam WilliamsM
- 20Jason ShokalookF
Form going into Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
- D1-1FC Cincinnati15 August 2026
- L2-3away to New York Red Bulls1 August 2026
- W1-0Nashville SC25 July 2026
- W4-0away to San Jose Earthquakes23 July 2026
Chicago Fire
- W2-1Portland Timbers16 August 2026
- W2-1Charlotte2 August 2026
- L1-3away to New York City FC25 July 2026
- L2-3away to Inter Miami22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire
- 19 August 2026Orlando City SC 1–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 23 October 2025Chicago Fire 3–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 31 May 2025Orlando City SC 1–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 4 May 2025Chicago Fire 0–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 22 June 2024Orlando City SC 4–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 30 May 2024Chicago Fire 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
- M. Ojeda11 goals1 assists
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.