New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 0-1 Nashville SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% New York Red Bulls, 24% draw, 23% Nashville SC — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York Red Bulls at 53% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34Ethan HorvathG
- 12Dylan NealisD
- 2Justin CheD
- 14Julián BazánD
- 56Matthew Dos SantosD
- 48Ronald DonkorM
- 15Adri MehmetiM
- 10Emil ForsbergM
- 7Cade CowellF
- 16Julian HallF
- 11Jorge RuvalcabaF
- 37Mohammed SofoF
- 91Mijahir JimenezF
- 3Jahkeele Marshall-RuttyD
- 26Tim ParkerD
- 77John McCarthyG
- 5Omar ValenciaD
- 39Nehuen BenedettiM
- 17Cameron HarperF
- 13Eric Maxim Choupo-MotingF
- 99Brian SchwakeG
- 27Reed Baker-WhitingD
- 5Jack MaherD
- 3Maxwell WoledziD
- 2Daniel LovitzD
- 16Matthew CorcoranM
- 20Edvard TagsethM
- 14Shakur MohammedM
- 10Hany MukhtarM
- 11Elias SaadM
- 9Sam SurridgeF
- 31Andy NajarD
- 7Cristian EspinozaF
- 37Ahmed QasemF
- 8Patrick YazbekM
- 22Josh BauerD
- 1Joe WillisG
- 4Jeisson PalaciosD
- 19Alex MuylM
- 6Bryan AcostaM
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
- W3-2Orlando City SC1 August 2026
- L0-2Charlotte25 July 2026
- L1-3away to Philadelphia Union22 July 2026
Nashville SC
- W4-1Inter Miami16 August 2026
- D2-2away to DC United1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC25 July 2026
- W1-0CF Montreal23 July 2026
- W1-0Atlanta United FC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC
- 19 August 2026New York Red Bulls 0–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2025Nashville SC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025New York Red Bulls 2–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 15 June 2024New York Red Bulls 0–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 24 February 2024Nashville SC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 22 October 2023Nashville SC 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
No leading scorers listed yet.
Nashville SC
- S. Surridge15 goals
- H. Mukhtar10 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.