5 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HNK Gorica.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Dinamo Zagreb, 28% draw, 22% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Zagreb at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Zagreb97%Draw3%HNK Gorica0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
🔁S. Kucisout: J. Frigan
18'
Patrik Mijić
25'
🔁S. Pericout: F. Braut
⚽D. Beljo
28'
46'
🔁K. Custovicout: D. Pavicic
Kirill Kravtsov
49'
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
64'
🔁A. Hoxhaout: M. Orsic
64'
🔁M. Zajcout: L. Kacavenda
65'
🔁L. Stojkovicout: L. Ivanusec
71'
71'
🔁J. Pranjicout: F. Brodic
71'
🔁T. Lacouxout: L. Vrzic
79'
Dušan Stevanović
🔁D. Beljoout: N. Galesic
81'
🔁M. Lisicaout: S. Prevljak
81'

Match stats — Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

67%Possession33%
15Shots9
7On target2
6Corners2
1.7xG0.79

Goals against chances

Dinamo Zagreb1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
HNK Gorica0 from 0.79 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 25M. ValincicD
  • 36S. DominguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22M. Perez VinlofD
  • 10L. StojkovicM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 9D. BeljoF
  • 11A. HoxhaF
Substitutes
  • 44I. FilipovicG
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 6S. RadeljicD
  • 15N. GalesicD
  • 13P. Tabinas
  • 27J. MisicM
  • 17L. IvanusecM
  • 80L. KacavendaM
  • 23I. AlmenaF
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. JosipovicG
  • 45S. PericD
  • 32J. FilipovicD
  • 15D. StevanovicD
  • 34I. CvijanovicD
  • 14S. KucisM
  • 6T. LacouxM
  • 4K. CustovicM
  • 8J. PranjicM
  • 25B. BogojevicM
  • 9P. MijicF
Substitutes
  • 30D. ZarkovG
  • 71D. MatijasG
  • 2F. BrautD
  • 24D. PavicicM
  • 7O. BakicM
  • 66J. FriganM
  • 99M. GashiF
  • 18B. KardumF
  • 10F. BrodicF
Coach: Mario Carevic

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

Dinamo Zagreb

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Viking26 August 2026
  • W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
  • D2-2Viking18 August 2026
  • W4-0Rudes14 August 2026

HNK Gorica

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
  • L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
  • L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026
  • L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
  • L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026

What these results say

  • Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
  • Dinamo Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Gorica did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Gorica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Dinamo Zagreb128132815+1325
10HNK Gorica131481025-157

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

  • 2 May 2026HNK Gorica 1–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 8 April 2026HNK Gorica 3–6 Dinamo ZagrebCup
  • 1 March 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–2 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 1 December 2025HNK Gorica 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 14 September 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–2 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 23 April 2025HNK Gorica 1–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL

Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and HNK Gorica

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo136
  • L. Stojković32

HNK Gorica

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bogojević40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Zagreb beat HNK Gorica 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Dinamo Zagreb at 50%. The goal: D. Beljo 28' for Dinamo Zagreb. On expected goals it finished 1.70–0.79.

How the call on Dinamo Zagreb v HNK Gorica has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is Dinamo Zagreb's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Dinamo Zagreb win50%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. HNK Gorica win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.