HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Rijeka 4-1 NK Osijek.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% HNK Rijeka, 29% draw, 29% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
HNK Rijeka at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13I. VekicG
- 22A. OrecD
- 45A. MajstorovicD
- 51A. HusicD
- 23J. LasickasD
- 26T. DantasM
- 6B. PavicM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 8I. CubelicM
- 10T. FrukM
- 18D. Adu AdjeiF
- 99A. TodorovicG
- 1V. KovacG
- 3M. ZivkovicD
- 91N. BodeticD
- 14A. GojakM
- 4N. JankovicM
- 5A. BarcoM
- 9M. MohebiM
- 21J. PuljicF
- 31M. MalenicaG
- 77S. MustaficD
- 49I. KolarikD
- 26L. JelenicD
- 2M. HeisterD
- 23L. VrbancicM
- 7I. DolcekM
- 48J. JezicM
- 39D. BukvicM
- 30A. LjatifiM
- 79A. LeonF
- 1N. CurcijaG
- 24L. PosavecD
- 47D. KalemD
- 98I. JezicD
- 8S. MikolcicM
- 67B. BaktiM
- 13V. CaicM
- 46I. BaricF
- 16O. PetrusenkoM
Form going into HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek
HNK Rijeka
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
- L1-4FC Midtjylland27 August 2026
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Midtjylland20 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin16 August 2026
NK Osijek
All competitions we cover
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026
- L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026
- W1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb15 August 2026
- W6-1away to Rudes8 August 2026
- W2-0away to HNK Gorica1 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Rijeka failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Osijek won 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Osijek scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 18 |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek
- 12 April 2026HNK Rijeka 0–2 NK OsijekHNL
- 1 February 2026NK Osijek 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 27 October 2025HNK Rijeka 4–2 NK OsijekHNL
- 9 August 2025NK Osijek 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 23 April 2025HNK Rijeka 0–2 NK OsijekHNL
- 16 February 2025NK Osijek 0–2 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and NK Osijek
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- T. Fruk54
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- S. Vignato41
NK Osijek
GoalsAssists
- A. León61
- N. Omerović50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Rijeka beat NK Osijek 4–1. The model had made a win for HNK Rijeka its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Leon 15' for NK Osijek, S. Vignato 21' for HNK Rijeka, D. Adu Adjei 33' for HNK Rijeka, D. Adu Adjei 43' for HNK Rijeka, T. Fruk 61' for HNK Rijeka. On expected goals it finished 2.66–0.35.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.