Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Dundalk 0-4 St Patrick's Athletic.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Dundalk, 27% draw, 39% St Patrick's Athletic — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
St Patrick's Athletic at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic
Line-ups
- 1E. MinogueG
- 12L. MulliganD
- 44T. GrivostiD
- 16E. VasseninD
- 3B. BurnsD
- 6A. DervinM
- 11R. TeahanM
- 15T. ClarkeM
- 8H. GroomeM
- 7D. HorganM
- 9C. DillonF
- 13P. CherrieG
- 10Leonardo GaxhaF
- 23A. M. KeoghM
- 27D. McDaidM
- 35S. SafaeiG
- 19Sean SpaightD
- 17S. TraceyM
- 5H. WarrenD
- 31J. WilsonD
- 94J. AnangG
- 4J. RedmondD
- 2S. HoareD
- 24L. TurnerD
- 6J. LennonM
- 7Z. ElbouzediM
- 48R. SheridanM
- 19B. BaggleyM
- 3A. BreslinM
- 21A. OlusanyaF
- 9A. KeenaF
- 1D. RogersG
- 17R. PalmerM
- 16D. NugentM
- 33S. McHaleD
- 11J. McClellandF
- 8C. ForresterM
- 27R. EdmondsonF
- 23J. BrownD
- 35S. RooneyF
Form going into Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic
Dundalk
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026
St Patrick's Athletic
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Shamrock Rovers11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dundalk | 36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 55 | 59 | -4 | 45 |
| 3 | St Patrick's Athletic | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 31 | +24 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic
- 24 July 2026St Patrick's Athletic 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
- 6 April 2026Dundalk 2–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 27 February 2026St Patrick's Athletic 4–0 DundalkPremier Division
- 5 September 2024Dundalk 1–2 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 3 June 2024St Patrick's Athletic 2–3 DundalkPremier Division
Leading scorers: Dundalk and St Patrick's Athletic
Dundalk
GoalsAssists
- D. Horgan1210
- G. Arubi73
St Patrick's Athletic
GoalsAssists
- A. Keena105
- R. Edmondson101
- K. Leavy73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St Patrick's Athletic won 4–0 at Dundalk. The model had made a win for St Patrick's Athletic its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Aidan Keena 21' for St Patrick's Athletic, Aidan Keena 37' for St Patrick's Athletic, Ryan Sheridan 75' for St Patrick's Athletic, Ryan Edmondson 82' for St Patrick's Athletic.
How the call on Dundalk v St Patrick's Athletic has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is St Patrick's Athletic's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Dundalk win34%▼ −2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- St Patrick's Athletic win39%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.