Waterford vs Derry City Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Waterford 2-2 Derry City.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Waterford, 28% draw, 29% Derry City — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Waterford at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Waterford vs Derry City
Line-ups
- 1S. McMullanG
- 16H. CannD
- 5J. MahonD
- 13K. LongD
- 3Benny CoutoD
- 20J. VoilåsM
- 8E. McLaughlinM
- 7N. MaweneM
- 10C. NoonanM
- 18T. LonerganF
- 9P. AmondF
- 27D. McMenamyM
- 56A. BrennanD
- 6J. AshtonD
- 32G. AmeduD
- 21Arlo Ricky Hugh DohertyG
- 19S. GlenfieldM
- 15L. HeeneyM
- 17J. FariaM
- 12B. McKenzieD
- 13Tom NorcottG
- 23C. DummiganD
- 4J. StottD
- 3Patrick McCleanD
- 12D. BurnsM
- 17N. TwiskM
- 8A. O'ReillyM
- 19B. FlemingM
- 27L. BoyceF
- 7M. DuffyF
- 15J. ClarkeF
- 22C. BarrD
- 14E. ChapmanM
- 25Christy GroganD
- 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
- 1B. MaherG
- 21Kévin SantosM
- 29T. SmithF
- 28J. OlayinkaM
- 11G. WhyteM
Form going into Waterford vs Derry City
Waterford
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Dundalk11 September 2026
Derry City
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Shelbourne11 September 2026
- D3-3Shamrock Rovers30 August 2026
- L0-1HNK Rijeka30 July 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Rijeka23 July 2026
What these results say
- Derry City failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Derry City conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Derry City had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Waterford | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 43 |
| 5 | Derry City | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 50 | 47 | +3 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Waterford vs Derry City
- 3 July 2026Derry City 2–4 WaterfordPremier Division
- 15 May 2026Waterford 2–2 Derry CityPremier Division
- 27 February 2026Derry City 4–2 WaterfordPremier Division
- 17 October 2025Waterford 1–2 Derry CityPremier Division
- 4 July 2025Derry City 7–2 WaterfordPremier Division
Leading scorers: Waterford and Derry City
Waterford
GoalsAssists
- T. Lonergan167
- P. Amond141
Derry City
GoalsAssists
- M. Duffy115
- J. Clarke73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Waterford and Derry City drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Waterford at 43% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Adam O'Reilly 9' for Derry City, Evan McLaughlin 45' for Waterford, Michael Duffy 51' for Derry City, Padraig Amond 57' for Waterford.