Bahia
vs
Remo
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bahia 2-1 Remo.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bahia, 27% draw, 24% Remo — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bahia 1.88, Remo 0.98.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Bahia vs Remo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 49% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bahia vs Remo
Line-ups
- 1RonaldoG
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 33David DuarteD
- 4KanuD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 99C. OliveraF
- 9A. VélizF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 77Ruan PabloF
- 12Willian JoséF
- 66Zé GuilhermeD
- 7AdemirF
- 63David MartinsM
- 27EveraldoF
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 31Roman GomezD
- 88Marcelo RangelG
- 27Zé IvaldoD
- 4Matheus FelipeD
- 18D. TchambaD
- 22Yago PikachuM
- 14L. PiccoM
- 8PatrickM
- 6MarlonM
- 21A. GaleanoF
- 55Zé RicardoF
- 7Jája SilvaF
- 9Gabriel PovedaF
- 19Gabriel TaliariF
- 97IvanG
- 10JádersonF
- 5Leo AndradeD
- 13MarllonD
- 2Matheus AlexandreD
- 15Vitor BuenoF
- 94Ygor VinhasG
Form going into Bahia vs Remo
Bahia
- W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
- W3-2Internacional30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Vitoria23 August 2026
- D3-3away to Chapecoense16 August 2026
Remo
- L0-1Flamengo6 September 2026
- L2-3Coritiba31 August 2026
- L1-2away to Fluminense22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 46 |
| 19 | Remo | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Remo
- 14 September 2026Bahia 2–1 RemoSerie A
- 14 May 2026Remo 2–1 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
- 22 April 2026Bahia 1–3 RemoCopa Do Brasil
- 22 March 2026Remo 4–1 BahiaSerie A
Leading scorers: Bahia and Remo
Bahia
- Luciano Juba9 goals1 assists
Remo
- Jája Silva7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.88 goals for Bahia and 0.98 for Remo; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jean Lucas 20' (Bahia), Luciano 90' (Bahia), Vitor Bueno 90' (Remo).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bahia the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Bahia against 0.98 for Remo. Bahia's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.07 for Remo.