San Diego
vs
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 0-5 Philadelphia Union.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% San Diego, 29% draw, 42% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: San Diego 1.15, Philadelphia Union 1.60.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: San Diego vs Philadelphia Union
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs Philadelphia Union
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18D. FerreeG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5K. Sargeant
- 70A. Alvarado JrM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 3D. ThorhallssonD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 23S. VinesD
- 20A. GodoyM
- 19D. VazquezM
- 15P. SomaM
- 94C. BakambuF
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44N. PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6C. SullivanM
- 21D. Jean JacquesM
- 4J. LukicM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 9B. DamianiF
- 10M. IloskiF
- 76A. RickG
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 16B. BenderM
- 28A. AnelloF
- 23E. AlladohF
- 51M. JakupovicF
Form going into San Diego vs Philadelphia Union
San Diego
- L2-3San Jose Earthquakes10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
- W3-1Los Angeles Galaxy30 August 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids23 August 2026
Philadelphia Union
- W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
- W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
- W3-1away to New York Red Bulls29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Austin23 August 2026
- D2-2Inter Miami19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: San Diego vs Philadelphia Union
- 14 September 2026San Diego 0–5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Diego and Philadelphia Union
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen11 goals3 assists
Philadelphia Union
- M. Iloski12 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.15 goals for San Diego and 1.60 for Philadelphia Union; the game produced 0 and 5.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: C. Sullivan 45' (Philadelphia Union), C. Sullivan 61' (Philadelphia Union), B. Damiani 67' (Philadelphia Union), A. Godoy 87' (Philadelphia Union), M. Jakupovic 90' (Philadelphia Union).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for San Diego against 1.6 for Philadelphia Union. San Diego's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.14 for Philadelphia Union.