6 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Qarabag.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Dynamo Kyiv, 16% draw, 17% Qarabag — fair odds of 1.49, 6.25 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dynamo Kyiv at 67% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dynamo Kyiv97%Draw3%Qarabag0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Ponomarenko
10'
Vladyslav Dubinchak
14'
62'
🔁O. Kashchukout: Kady Borges
62'
🔁R. Cephasout: M. Qurbanly
🔁E. Guerreroout: N. Voloshyn
69'
🔁J. Lonwijkout: M. Shaparenko
69'
🔁V. Dubinchakout: O. Tymchyk
69'
75'
🔁E. Cafarquliyevout: B. Langa
75'
🔁Pedro Bicalhoout: S. Lobato
79'
🔁M. Jankovicout: J. Montiel
🔁B. Redushkoout: V. Kabaev
80'
Tomasz Kędziora
81'
🔁V. Rubchynskyiout: O. Pikhalyonok
87'
88'
Cebrail Makreckis
Mykola Shaparenko
90+6'
90+4'
Matheus Silva

Match stats — Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag

39%Possession61%
3On target2
3Corners11

Line-ups

Dynamo Kyiv 4-2-3-1
  • 71V. SurkisG
  • 5O. SychD
  • 94T. KedzioraD
  • 32T. MykhavkoD
  • 44V. DubinchakD
  • 6V. BrazhkoM
  • 15V. RubchynskyiM
  • 39E. GuerreroF
  • 21J. LonwijkM
  • 70B. RedushkoM
  • 11M. PonomarenkoF
Substitutes
  • 35R. NeshcheretG
  • 43I. OlkhovyiG
  • 7A. YarmolenkoM
  • 8O. PikhalyonokM
  • 9N. VoloshynM
  • 10M. ShaparenkoM
  • 18O. TymchykD
  • 22V. KabaevM
  • 29V. BuyalskyyM
Coach: Igor Kostyuk
Qarabag 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. KochalskiG
  • 25C. MakreckisM
  • 2Matheus SilvaD
  • 4B. Varkonyi
  • 44E. CafarquliyevD
  • 35Pedro BicalhoM
  • 8M. JankovicM
  • 7J. MouaddibM
  • 10A. Zoubir
  • 29R. CephasF
  • 21O. KashchukM
Substitutes
  • 1S. MahammadaliyevG
  • 23M. ZlomislicG
  • 5B. LangaD
  • 9J. MontielM
  • 13B. MustafazadaD
  • 20Kady BorgesM
  • 22M. QurbanlyF
  • 32H. CabrayilzadaM
  • 49A. BashirovM
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Form going into Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag

Dynamo Kyiv

  • L0-2away to PAOK30 July 2026
  • L2-3PAOK23 July 2026

Qarabag

  • D0-0away to CSKA Sofia30 July 2026
  • D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag

  • 6 August 2026Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 QarabagUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.