1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 FC Schalke 04.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% 1899 Hoffenheim, 28% draw, 25% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
1899 Hoffenheim at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. BaumannG
- 34V. CoufalD
- 5O. KabakD
- 28K. MachidaD
- 39M. RotsD
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 27A. KramarićM
- 22A. PrassM
- 19T. LemperleF
- 11F. AsllaniF
- 29Natnael AbrahaD
- 13BernardoD
- 14A. DaghimF
- 46J. FieldsF
- 10A. HložekF
- 47V. LässigD
- 32Cajetan Benjamin LenzM
- 9Max MoerstedtF
- 37L. PhilippG
- 1L. KariusG
- 21D. LjubičićD
- 43M. AyhanD
- 25N. KatićD
- 4H. KuruçayD
- 8R. GosensD
- 23S. El-FaouziM
- 13S. TanakaM
- 24A. AouchicheM
- 19K. KaramanF
- 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
- 38L. VozarM
- 27F. PorathM
- 22K. MüllerG
- 11B. LasmeF
- 40E. GashiM
- 10E. DžekoF
- 29J. Dina EbimbeM
- 33Vitalie BeckerD
- 20J. AdamuF
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
1899 Hoffenheim
Bundesliga
- L0-2away to Werder Bremen31 October 2026
- W3-0Bayer Leverkusen25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Borussia Mönchengladbach18 October 2026
- L2-3Hamburger SV10 October 2026
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga
- L0-2RB Leipzig31 October 2026
- D0-0away to 1. FC Köln24 October 2026
- L0-1FSV Mainz 0517 October 2026
- L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026
What these results say
- 1899 Hoffenheim scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim had three goals or more.
- FC Schalke 04 did not win any of these 4 matches.
- FC Schalke 04 failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Schalke 04 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
- 9 April 20231899 Hoffenheim 2–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 18 October 20221899 Hoffenheim 5–1 FC Schalke 04DFB Pokal
- 14 October 2022FC Schalke 04 0–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 8 May 20211899 Hoffenheim 4–2 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 9 January 2021FC Schalke 04 4–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 7 March 2020FC Schalke 04 1–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
The result against the call
1899 Hoffenheim beat FC Schalke 04 2–1. The model had made a win for 1899 Hoffenheim its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Fisnik Asllani 10' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Tim Lemperle 26' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Junior Chukwubuike Adamu 81' for FC Schalke 04. On expected goals it finished 1.94–2.61.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1899 Hoffenheim a 5.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 3.5% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.5%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.
For FC Schalke 04 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 27.2% going in: 17.5% after a win, 27.0% after a draw, 30.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.5%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on 1899 Hoffenheim v FC Schalke 04 has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is 1899 Hoffenheim's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- 1899 Hoffenheim win47%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- FC Schalke 04 win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.