8 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis Ligue 1 prediction & result

Metlaoui Municipal stadium, Metlaoui
Full time2 – 1

Final score: ES Metlaoui 2-1 ES Zarzis.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% ES Metlaoui, 28% draw, 39% ES Zarzis — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

ES Zarzis at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ES Metlaoui3%Draw93%ES Zarzis4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

53'
Y. El Kassah
⚽O. Naffati
64'
65'
🔁L. Rjiliout: M. Zidi
65'
🔁Y. El Kassahout: K. Sowe
🔁B. Nanaout: Y. Soltani
76'
80'
🔁O. Toureout: A. Garreb
80'
🔁Y. Dhiflaouiout: M. Smaali
87'
M. Smaali
88'
⚽H. Labidi (pen)
90'
90+8'
F. Ghouma
⚽A. Tlili (pen)
90+9'
M. Toumi
90+10'

Line-ups

ES Metlaoui
Coach: Amine Gara
ES Zarzis
Coach: Chokri Khatoui

Form going into ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis

ES Metlaoui

Ligue 1

  • L0-3away to AS Marsa18 October 2026
  • L1-2Stade Tunisien11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane13 September 2026
  • W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse6 September 2026

ES Zarzis

Ligue 1

  • L0-1away to Stade Tunisien29 October 2026
  • W2-0ES Hammam-Sousse11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Club Africain20 September 2026
  • L1-2US Monastirienne16 September 2026

What these results say

  • ES Metlaoui failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Metlaoui conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Zarzis failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Zarzis conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for ES Zarzis had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12ES Metlaoui7205510-56
13ES Zarzis720568-26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis

  • 9 May 2026ES Zarzis 1–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
  • 9 November 2025ES Metlaoui 0–0 ES ZarzisLigue 1
  • 6 April 2025ES Metlaoui 0–2 ES ZarzisCup
  • 9 February 2025ES Metlaoui 1–0 ES ZarzisLigue 1
  • 29 September 2024ES Zarzis 1–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
  • 26 May 2022Etoile S. Metlaoui 1–0 ES ZarzisLigue 1

Leading scorers: ES Metlaoui and ES Zarzis

ES Metlaoui

GoalsAssists

  • Mohamed Bouzaabya10

ES Zarzis

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

ES Metlaoui beat ES Zarzis 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for ES Zarzis at 39% and given a win for ES Metlaoui 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: O. Naffati 64' for ES Metlaoui, H. Labidi (penalty) 88' for ES Zarzis, A. Tlili (penalty) 90+9' for ES Metlaoui. Sent off: F. Ghouma (ES Zarzis) 90+8'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ES Metlaoui a 56.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 39.8% after a win, 59.0% after a draw, 70.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.8%, 17 points lower than before the match.

For ES Zarzis the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 6.7% going in: 1.8% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 11.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.7%, 5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on ES Metlaoui v ES Zarzis has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is ES Zarzis's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. ES Metlaoui win33%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. ES Zarzis win39%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.