8 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Pafos vs Omonia 29is Maiou 1. Division prediction & result

Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos
Referee: Konstantinos Neofytou, Cyprus
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Pafos 4-2 Omonia 29is Maiou.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Pafos, 25% draw, 18% Omonia 29is Maiou — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pafos at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pafos99%Draw1%Omonia 29is Maiou0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
M. Antoniou
⚽J. Noro
24'
⚽Lele
27'
S. Mmaee
32'
32'
S. Ambri
⚽Anderson Silva
45'
⚽V. Dragomir
47'
54'
⚽D. Crnigoj
58'
D. Crnigoj
🔁Leleout: A. Patrao
59'
🔁K. Semaout: M. Mammadov
59'
🔁S. Mmaeeout: A. Brito
59'
63'
🔁M. Antoniouout: R. Fernandes
63'
🔁K. Nwakaliout: M. Sotiriou
🔁Anderson Silvaout: Guga
66'
J. Correia
68'
69'
🔁L. dos Santosout: C. Aristotelous
69'
🔁D. Crnigojout: Mike Morais
🔁J. Correiaout: Bruno
71'
81'
🔁K. Pattichisout: S. Tsoukalas
87'
⚽S. Ambri

Line-ups

Pafos 4-4-2
  • 99Radosław MajeckiG
  • 2Yoram ZagueD
  • 3Samy MmaeeD
  • 23Jonatás NoroD
  • 14Nikolas IoannouD
  • 77João CorreiaM
  • 26Ivan ŠunjićM
  • 30Vlad DragomirM
  • 12Ken SemaM
  • 33Anderson SilvaF
  • 18LelêF
Substitutes
  • 50Alexandre BritoM
  • 47Murad MammadovM
  • 17Afonso PatraoF
  • 6GugaM
  • 7BrunoD
  • 71Michalis PapastylianouG
  • 82Petros PetrouG
  • 61Melinos KaisD
  • 72Kosmas IoannouD
Omonia 29is Maiou 4-2-3-1
  • 98Francis UzohoG
  • 15Stelios PanteliD
  • 30Matej SenićD
  • 44Dimitris ChantakiasD
  • 4Alexandros KaiafasD
  • 16Konstantinos PattichisM
  • 22Kelechi NwakaliM
  • 26Marios AntoniouF
  • 89Domen ČrnigojM
  • 77Luís SantosM
  • 45Steve AmbriF
Substitutes
  • 46Modestos SotiriouD
  • 7Rashaan FernandesM
  • 8Charalambos AristotelousM
  • 10Mike MoraisF
  • 5Stavros TsoukalasM
  • 1Nikolaos GrammatikakisG
  • 43Antonis MavrantonisG
  • 97Stefan StojanovićG
  • 24Angelos VyntraD

Form going into Pafos vs Omonia 29is Maiou

Pafos

1. Division

  • D2-2away to Apollon Limassol31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Nea Salamis26 October 2026
  • D0-0Apoel Nicosia19 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026

Omonia 29is Maiou

1. Division

  • W1-0Nea Salamis1 November 2026
  • L1-4away to Apoel Nicosia25 October 2026
  • W1-0Anorthosis18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to AEL11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Pafos went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Pafos failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Omonia 29is Maiou scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Pafos9441137+616
8Omonia 29is Maiou93241517-211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pafos vs Omonia 29is Maiou

  • 3 February 2025Pafos 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou1. Division
  • 28 October 2024Omonia 29is Maiou 1–2 Pafos1. Division
  • 22 September 2021Omonia 29is Maiou 0–1 PafosCup

Leading scorers: Pafos and Omonia 29is Maiou

Pafos

GoalsAssists

  • Lelê20

Omonia 29is Maiou

No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pafos beat Omonia 29is Maiou 4–2. The model had made a win for Pafos its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Noro 24' for Pafos, Lele 27' for Pafos, Anderson Silva 45' for Pafos, V. Dragomir 47' for Pafos, D. Crnigoj 54' for Omonia 29is Maiou, S. Ambri 87' for Omonia 29is Maiou.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pafos a 83.6% chance to finish in the top six: 87.6% after a win, 80.0% after a draw, 74.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.6%, 4 points higher than before the match.

For Omonia 29is Maiou the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 13.3% going in: 20.5% after a win, 14.0% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.8%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.