8 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Apoel Nicosia vs Aris 1. Division prediction & result

GSP Stadium, Nicosia
Referee: Antonis Konstantinidis, Cyprus
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Apoel Nicosia 3-1 Aris.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Apoel Nicosia, 26% draw, 26% Aris — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Apoel Nicosia at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Apoel Nicosia99%Draw1%Aris0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Werton
4'
Werton
⚽Marquinhos
9'
17'
M. Matysik
34'
🔁Wertonout: D. Gaustad
⚽A. Carrillo
45+2'
Marquinhos
46'
🔁S. Vrontisout: A. Barak
55'
🔁F. Pedrozoout: S. Georgiou
67'
🔁D. Manciniout: F. Djuricic
67'
68'
🔁V. Nikolicout: M. Sane
68'
🔁G. Kaluluout: O. Lebi
⚽A. Bakasetas
77'
82'
S. Yago
🔁Marquinhosout: G. N. Angelopoulos
83'
🔁Dalcioout: F. Perez
83'

Line-ups

Apoel Nicosia 4-2-3-1
  • 27Vid BelecG
  • 18Dimitris LimniosM
  • 16Álvaro CarrilloD
  • 34Konstantinos LaifisD
  • 3Kostas StafylidisD
  • 8DálcioM
  • 6Stylianos VrontisM
  • 7Daniel ManciniM
  • 9Tasos BakasetasM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 15Fabricio PedrozoF
Substitutes
  • 72Antonín BarákM
  • 31Filip ĐuričićM
  • 70Stavros GeorgiouM
  • 4Georgios Nikolas AngelopoulosD
  • 99Facundo PérezM
  • 1Oliver ZelenikaG
  • 5Miloš DegenekD
  • 14Ángel GarcíaD
  • 21Constantinos PoursaitidesD
Aris 4-2-3-1
  • 91Mislav ZadroG
  • 24Gedeon KaluluD
  • 20Steeve YagoD
  • 17Miłosz MatysikD
  • 7Anderson CorreiaD
  • 8Charalampos CharalampousM
  • 22Veljko NikolićM
  • 30Gustavo PajeM
  • 99WertonM
  • 70Chahid El AllachiM
  • 11Rody Junior EffagheF
Substitutes
  • 29Dennis Bakke GaustadM
  • 19Mamadou SaneD
  • 16Oriyomi LebiF
  • 1VanáG
  • 46Georgios DimitriouG
  • 3Lazar MarašD
  • 5David LelleD
  • 18Bence SzakosD
  • 27Juraj BadeljD

Form going into Apoel Nicosia vs Aris

Apoel Nicosia

1. Division

  • W2-1away to Omonia Aradippou1 November 2026
  • W4-1Omonia 29is Maiou25 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Pafos19 October 2026
  • W2-1Nea Salamis10 October 2026

Aris

1. Division

  • W2-1Anorthosis1 November 2026
  • W3-1away to AEL25 October 2026
  • D1-1AEK Larnaca18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Olympiakos11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Apoel Nicosia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Apoel Nicosia won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Apoel Nicosia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Aris went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Aris scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Aris conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Apoel Nicosia95222111+1017
7Aris94321313015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Apoel Nicosia vs Aris

  • 6 May 2026Aris 1–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
  • 5 April 2026Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Aris1. Division
  • 15 March 2026Aris 1–2 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
  • 7 December 2025Apoel Nicosia 2–0 Aris1. Division
  • 22 April 2025Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Aris1. Division
  • 15 March 2025Aris 1–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division

Leading scorers: Apoel Nicosia and Aris

Apoel Nicosia

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pedrozo50
  • Marquinhos20
  • K. Stafylidis11

Aris

GoalsAssists

  • R. Effaghe40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Apoel Nicosia beat Aris 3–1. The model had made a win for Apoel Nicosia its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Werton 3' for Aris, Marquinhos 9' for Apoel Nicosia, A. Carrillo 45+2' for Apoel Nicosia, A. Bakasetas 77' for Apoel Nicosia.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Apoel Nicosia a 81.5% chance to finish in the top six: 86.4% after a win, 79.4% after a draw, 74.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.4%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.

For Aris the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 64.8% going in: 75.7% after a win, 66.2% after a draw, 59.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.9%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Apoel Nicosia v Aris has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Apoel Nicosia's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Apoel Nicosia win48%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Aris win26%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.