7 November 2026, 16:45 UTC

ES Setif vs MB Rouisset Ligue 1 prediction & result

Full time1 – 1

Final score: ES Setif 1-1 MB Rouisset.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% ES Setif, 29% draw, 29% MB Rouisset — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

ES Setif at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ES Setif4%Draw93%MB Rouisset3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
M. Moluh Mounta
M. Salifu
37'
41'
🔁M. Moluh Mountaout: M. Yakoubi
⚽L. Tabti
53'
57'
🔁Z. Benabbasout: M. Djahdou
58'
🔁H. Fatawuout: B. Hend
🔁M. Hamekout: M. Belkhir
64'
🔁A. J. Yousefout: M. Zerrouki
64'
70'
⚽A. El Orfi (pen)
🔁M. Salifuout: Z. Benchaa
77'
🔁R. Benayadout: A. A. Bouneqab
78'
83'
🔁N. Ben Kheiraout: R. Hamroune
🔁L. Tabtiout: I. Bouchagoura
83'
90+4'

Form going into ES Setif vs MB Rouisset

ES Setif

Ligue 1

  • W2-1away to ASO Chlef30 October 2026
  • L1-2Témouchent24 October 2026
  • D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
  • D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026

MB Rouisset

Ligue 1

  • D1-1Ben Aknoun31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to ASO Chlef24 October 2026
  • W1-0JS Saoura18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Témouchent14 October 2026

What these results say

  • ES Setif failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Setif scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Setif conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • MB Rouisset went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • MB Rouisset scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for MB Rouisset had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Algeria Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10ES Setif8233108+29
4MB Rouisset943296+315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ES Setif vs MB Rouisset

  • 20 February 2026ES Setif 2–1 MB RouissetLigue 1
  • 19 September 2025MB Rouisset 3–0 ES SetifLigue 1

The result against the call

ES Setif and MB Rouisset drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for ES Setif at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: L. Tabti 53' for ES Setif, A. El Orfi (penalty) 70' for MB Rouisset.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ES Setif a 7.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.3% after a win, 7.6% after a draw, 9.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.6%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.

For MB Rouisset the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 6.6% going in: 9.2% after a win, 6.1% after a draw, 4.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.1%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on ES Setif v MB Rouisset has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is ES Setif's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. ES Setif win42%▼ −6
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. MB Rouisset win29%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.