7 November 2026, 10:00 UTC

Naftan vs ML Vitebsk Premier League prediction & result

Atlant Stadium, Novopolotsk
Full time0 – 5

Final score: Naftan 0-5 ML Vitebsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 10% Naftan, 16% draw, 74% ML Vitebsk — fair odds of 10.00, 6.25 and 1.35.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

ML Vitebsk at 74%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Naftan0%Draw1%ML Vitebsk99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Valeri Gromykoassist: Zakhar Volkov
16'
Radivoj Bosić
35'
⚽Bassekou Diabate
41'
⚽Radivoj Bosić
45'
⚽Bassekou Diabateassist: Kirill Gomanov
🔁Aleksey Tumanovout: Artem Drabatovich
45'
45'
🔁Valeri Gromykoout: Ode abdullahi
53'
🔁Zakhar Volkovout: Nikita Baranok
65'
🔁Valery Bocherovout: Aleksandar Mesarovic
65'
🔁Ilya Moskalenchikout: Vladislav Zhuk
74'
🔁Radivoj Bosićout: Timur Ivanov
🔁ignat pranovichout: Artem Voskoboynikov
74'
🔁Vasiliy Chernyavskiyout: Egor Leshchenok
77'
🔁vadim yakovlevout: Ivan Chmut
86'
88'
⚽Denilho Cleonise

Match stats — Naftan vs ML Vitebsk

39%Possession61%
1Shots7
1On target3
7Corners9

Line-ups

Naftan 5-4-1
  • 13A. KharitonovichG
  • 97V. ChernyavskiyD
  • 8A. StefanishinD
  • 7A. TumanovD
  • 69Roman khadzhievD
  • 24I. SeleznevD
  • 10A. SavitskiyM
  • 6K. AdamovichM
  • 50G. MafwentaM
  • 9V. YakovlevM
  • 11I. PranovichF
Substitutes
  • 30Marlen AymanovF
  • 14I. ChmutD
  • 88A. DrabatovichD
  • 57T. GalimzyanovM
  • 21K. KirkitskiyM
  • 20E. LeshchenokM
  • 71A. NaumovichG
  • 16D. SadovskiyG
  • 25Jorge Garcia de la Torre ArmasF
Coach: Aleksandr Khrapkovskiy
ML Vitebsk 4-3-3
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 23S. BalanovichD
  • 6K. GomanovD
  • 45I. MoskalenchikD
  • 55V. GromykoM
  • 15V. BocherovM
  • 80A. KontsevoyM
  • 10D. CleoniseF
  • 9B. DiabatéF
  • 12R. BosićF
Substitutes
  • 4A. OdeM
  • 3N. BaranokD
  • 99M. BulanovF
  • 8S. GnakaM
  • 7T. IvanovF
  • 27A. MesarovićM
  • 30Pavel ShcherbachenyaG
  • 22Y. SkibskiyM
  • 18V. ZhukM
Coach: Juan Díaz

Form going into Naftan vs ML Vitebsk

Naftan

Premier League

  • L0-3away to Baranovichi31 October 2026
  • L0-6FC Isloch Minsk R.24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Torpedo Zhodino19 October 2026
  • W4-1Belshina10 October 2026

ML Vitebsk

Premier League

  • W4-0FC Minsk1 November 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.28 October 2026
  • W2-0away to FC Vitebsk24 October 2026
  • W1-0Neman18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Naftan conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Naftan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Naftan failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ML Vitebsk won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ML Vitebsk scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ML Vitebsk kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Naftan2845192470-4617
1ML Vitebsk2818826119+4262

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Naftan vs ML Vitebsk

  • 27 June 2026ML Vitebsk 2–1 NaftanPremier League
  • 22 August 2025ML Vitebsk 2–0 NaftanPremier League
  • 12 April 2025Naftan 0–3 ML VitebskPremier League
  • 14 July 2024ML Vitebsk 2–1 NaftanCoppa
  • 11 February 2024Naftan 1–2 ML VitebskFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

ML Vitebsk won 5–0 at Naftan. The model had made a win for ML Vitebsk its most likely outcome, at 74%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Valeri Gromyko 4' for ML Vitebsk, Bassekou Diabate 35' for ML Vitebsk, Radivoj Bosić 41' for ML Vitebsk, Bassekou Diabate 45' for ML Vitebsk, Denilho Cleonise 88' for ML Vitebsk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ML Vitebsk a 65.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 74.3% after a win, 31.5% after a draw, 25.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.3%, 8.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Naftan v ML Vitebsk has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 14% / 19% / 67% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 10% / 16% / 74%: the biggest move is ML Vitebsk's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Naftan win10%▼ −4
  2. Draw16%▼ −3
  3. ML Vitebsk win74%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.